Philippine Sea: Super Typhoon Man-yi tracking northwestward towards Bicol Region, Philippines, as of Nov. 16 /update 8

Super Typhoon Man-yi (known in the Philippines as Pepito) is tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea and is approaching Bicol Region in the Philippines Nov. 16. As of 17:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 520 km (323 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly but remain a super typhoon as it tracks northwestward and makes landfall over northern Catanduanes Province in the Philippines late Nov. 16 before weakening into a typhoon and making another landfall over southern Aurora Province during the afternoon of Nov. 17. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken significantly but remain a typhoon as it tracks rapidly northwestward across Luzon before exiting into the South China Sea late Nov. 17. The system is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward then west-northwestward away from the Philippines Nov. 18-19. Man-yi is likely to weaken further as it turns to track southwestward and passes south of Hainan Province, China Nov. 19-20, before degrading into a tropical depression and dissipating as it approaches central Vietnam Nov. 21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds and rough seas to the northern and central Philippines. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching more than 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities along the western coast of Ilocos Region, Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabazron, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 5 (the highest level on a five-tier scale): Catanduanes

• TCWS 4: Northeastern Camarines Sur and northern Albay

• TCWS 3: The rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, Polillo Islands, southeastern mainland Quezon, Camarines Norte, northern Sorsogon, and central and eastern Northern Samar

• TCWS 2: Southern Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, eastern Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, southern Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Marinduque, the rest of Sorsogon, Burias Island, Ticao Island, central Eastern Samar, northern Samar, and the rest of Northern Samar

• TCWS 1: Mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Zambales, Batangas, northern Occidental Mindoro, northern Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, the rest of Masbate, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the northern and central Leyte, northeastern Southern Leyte, far northern Cebu including the Bantayan Islands, far northern Iloilo. and the northern Dinagat Islands

PAGASA has also issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to Man-yi. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Camarines Norte provinces Nov. 16-17 and Quezon, Aurora, Rizal, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Benguet, and Pangasinan provinces Nov. 17-18. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Albay, Quezon, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar provinces Nov. 16-17 and La Union, Tarlac, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, and Camarines Norte provinces Nov. 17-18. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the central, eastern, and northern Philippines Nov. 17-19. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for low-lying, flood-prone, landslide-prone, and coastal areas of Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas regions, affecting hundreds of thousands of people; nearly 500,000 people have been evacuated in Bicol Region alone. Authorities in Naga City have imposed a general curfew until further notice to encourage residents to stay sheltered at home or in evacuation centers during the passing of the storm. Airlines have canceled dozens of flights between Cebu, Manila, Legazpi, Naga, Masbate, Naga, Tacloban, Davao, Iloilo, and Calbayog Nov. 16. The Land Transportation Office suspended bus and public utility vehicle trips to the Visayas and Mindanao to avoid congestion at Matnog Port in Sorsogon. Authorities have closed ports across the northern and central Philippines; almost 2,000 people are stranded at ports in Bicol Region and over 1,000 more across other areas of Eastern Visayas and southern Luzon due to the suspension of sea travel. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.