Philippine Sea: Tropical Depression 27 tracking west-northwestward toward the Philippines as of early Nov. 11

Tropical Depression 27 is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea toward Luzon in the Philippines early Nov. 11. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 594 km (369 miles) west of Guam.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will rapidly strengthen into a typhoon as it continues west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea through Nov. 13 before making landfall over Cagayan Province in the Philippines early Nov. 14 and exiting into the Luzon Strait shortly after. The storm is likely to turn to track northwestward across the Luzon Strait and make a close approach to Babuyan Islands the afternoon of Nov. 14 before turning to track northward early Nov. 15 and making landfall over far eastern Pingtung County in Taiwan, near the border with Kaohsiung City early Nov. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Tropical Storm Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, Tropical Storm Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines), which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7, and most recently Typhoon Toraji (named Nika in the Philippines), which is likely to make landfall over far northeastern Aurora Province over the coming hours. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across the region. More than 640,000 people remain evacuated following damage caused by the storms, with the worst affected Cagayan Province. Further severe weather associated with Tropical Depression 27 will likely lead to more disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.