Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Man-yi tracking westward towards central Philippines as of early Nov. 15 /update 6

Tropical Storm Man-yi (known in the Philippines as Pepito) is tracking westward in the Philippine Sea towards the central Philippines early Nov. 15. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 356 km (221 miles) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a typhoon the afternoon of Nov. 15. The storm is likely to strengthen further as it gradually turns to track northwestward and make landfall over Catanduanes Province in the Philippines late Nov. 16 before making another landfall over southern Aurora Province late Nov. 17. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken but remain a typhoon as it tracks northwestward across the Central Luzon and southern Ilocos regions before exiting into the South China Sea early Nov. 18 and subsequently moving westward away from the Philippines through early Nov. 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds and rough seas to northern and central Philippines. There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2-3 meters (6.5-10 feet) above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities in Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar provinces. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale): Catanduanes, eastern Camarines Norte, eastern Camarines Sur, eastern Albay, and eastern and southern Sorsogon provinces in Luzon as well as Northern Samar, northern Eastern Samar, and northeastern Samar provinces in the Visayas

PAGASA has also issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to the storms Usagi and Man-yi. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Catanduanes Province Nov. 16 and Catanduanes, Quezon, Aurora, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur provinces Nov. 17. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon provinces Nov. 16 and Northern Samar, Albay, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, and Nueva Ecija provinces Nov. 17. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines Nov. 15-17, with some of the later rainfall associated with Man-yi. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas regions. Classes are suspended in parts of the Bicol Region.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.