Philippine Sea: Typhoon Man-yi tracking west-northwestward towards Bicol Region, Philippines, as of early Nov. 17 /update 9

Typhoon Man-yi (known in the Philippines as Pepito) is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea and is approaching the Calabarzon Region in the Philippines early Nov. 17 following landfall over Panganiban on the eastern coast of Catanduanes Province around 21:40 Nov. 16. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 304 km (189 miles) east of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks northwestward and makes another landfall over central Aurora Province during the afternoon of Nov. 17. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken significantly into a tropical storm as it tracks rapidly northwestward across Luzon before exiting into the South China Sea late Nov. 17. The system is expected to weaken further as it tracks northwestward then west-northwestward away from the Philippines Nov. 18-19. Man-yi is likely to weaken further as it turns to track southwestward and passes south of Hainan Province, China, Nov. 20, before degrading into a tropical depression and dissipating as it approaches central Vietnam early Nov. 21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds and rough seas to the northern and central Philippines. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching more than 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities along the western coast of Ilocos Region, Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, and Eastern Samar. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 5 (the highest level on a five-tier scale): eastern Polillo Islands and Calaguas Islands

• TCWS 4: Northeastern Camarines Sur, the rest of Camarines Norte, northern and western Catanduanes, northern mainland Quezon, the rest of Polillo Islands, central and southern Aurora, eastern Nueva Ecija, southeastern Nueva Vizcaya, and southern Quirino

• TCWS 3: The rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Catanduanes, northeastern Albay, eastern Quezon, eastern Laguna, eastern and central Rizal, the rest of Aurora, eastern and central Bulacan, northeastern Pampanga, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, northern Zambales, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, southern Isabela, central and southern Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Ifugao, western Mountain Province, and southern Abra

• TCWS 2: Sorsogon, the rest of Albay, Ticao Island, Burias Island, northern Marinduque, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Laguna, the rest of Rizal, Cavite, northern Batangas, Metro Manila, Bataan, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, the rest of Zambales, southwestern Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, the rest of Abra, southern Apayao, Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ilocos Sur, and southern Ilocos Norte

• TCWS 1: The rest of Masbate, the rest of Marinduque, northern Romblon, northern and central Oriental Mindoro, northern and central Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, the rest of Batangas, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, and the rest of Ilocos Norte in Luzon as well as Northern Samar, northern Samar and northern Eastern Samar in the Visayas

PAGASA has also issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to Man-yi. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Quezon, Aurora, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino provinces Nov. 17. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Catanduanes, Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Benguet, Pangasinan, Ifugao, La Union, Bulacan, and Rizal provinces Nov. 17. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the central, eastern, and northern Philippines Nov. 17-18. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for low-lying, flood-prone, landslide-prone, and coastal areas of Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas regions, affecting hundreds of thousands of people; nearly 500,000 people have been evacuated in Bicol Region alone. Authorities in Naga City have imposed a general curfew until further notice to encourage residents to stay sheltered at home or in evacuation centers during the passing of the storm. Airlines have canceled dozens of flights between Bacolod, Basco, Busuanga, Butuan, Calbayog, Caticlan, Cauayan, Cebu, Clark, Davao, Dumaguete, Iloilo, Kalibo, Manila, Laoag, Legazpi, Naga, Masbate, Naga, Puerto Princesa, San Jose, Siargao, Surigao, Tacloban, Tuguegarao, Virac, and Zamboanga Nov. 16-17. Some international flights connecting Manila with Shanghai, Singapore, and Tokyo are also canceled Nov. 17. The Land Transportation Office suspended bus and public utility vehicle trips to the Visayas and Mindanao to avoid congestion at Matnog Port in Sorsogon. Authorities have closed ports across the northern and central Philippines; more than 2,000 people are stranded at ports in Bicol Region and over 1,000 more across other areas of Eastern Visayas and southern Luzon due to the suspension of sea travel. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.