Philippine Sea: Typhoon Man-yi tracking west-northwestward towards central Philippines as of early Nov. 16 /update 7

Typhoon Man-yi (known in the Philippines as Pepito) is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea towards the central Philippines early Nov. 16. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 791 km (491 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it tracks northwestward and makes landfall over Catanduanes Province in the Philippines late Nov. 16 before weakening slightly and making another landfall over southern Aurora Province the afternoon of Nov. 17. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across the Central Luzon and southern Ilocos regions before exiting into the South China Sea early Nov. 18 and subsequently tracking west-northwestward away from the Philippines through early Nov. 19. The storm is likely to weaken further as it turns to track west-southwestward and make a close approach to Hainan Province, China early Nov. 20 before degrading into a tropical depression as its track south of the island early Nov. 21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds and rough seas to northern and central Philippines. There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching more than 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities in Bicol and Ilocos regions as well as Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Marinduque, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, and Isabela provinces. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Catanduanes, eastern Albay, and far eastern Sorsogon

• TCWS 2: The rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Camarines Norte, far eastern mainland Quezon, and Pollilo Islands in Luzon as well as northern Eastern Samar, northern Samar, and the rest of Northern Samar in the Visayas

• TCWS 1: The rest of Masbate including Burias Island, Marinduque, Romblon, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela, central and southern Cagayan, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Abra, southern Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and Benguet in Luzon as well as the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, northern and central Leyte, northeastern Southern Leyte, far northern Cebu including Bantayan Islands, and northernmost Iloilo in the Visayas and northern Dinagat Islands in Mindanao

PAGASA has also issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to Man-yi. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Catanduanes Province Nov. 16 and Quezon and Aurora provinces Nov. 17. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar provinces Nov. 16 and Camarines Norte, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and Pangasinan provinces Nov. 17. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines Nov. 16-18. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for low-lying, flood-prone, landslide-prone, and coastal areas of Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas regions, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Airlines have canceled flights between Cebu, Manila, and Siargao Nov. 15 and between Calbayog, Cebu, Davao, Iloilo, Legazpi, Manila, Masbate, Naga, Tacloban, and Virac Nov. 16. The Land Transportation Office suspended bus and public utility vehicle trips to the Visayas and Mindanao to avoid congestion at Matnog Port in Sorsogon. Authorities have closed ports across the northern and central Philippines; almost 1,000 people are stranded. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.