Philippine Sea: Typhoon Yinxing tracking northwestward east of the Phillippines as of early Nov. 6 /update 1

Typhoon Yinxing (known in the Philippines as Marce) is tracking northwestward across the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines early Nov. 6. As of 05:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 563 km (350 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen further as it slowly turns to track westward and makes landfall over Camiguin then Fuga islands in the Babuyan Islands, Philippines, the afternoon of Nov. 7 before exiting into the South China Sea early Nov. 8. Yinxing is forecast to weaken as it continues westward away from the Philippines through early Nov. 10 before turning to track southwestward as it weakens into a tropical storm through early Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 6, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 2 (the second-lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for eastern Babuyan islands and northeastern mainland Cagayan. TCWS 1 is in effect for Batanes, the rest of Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, northern Benguet, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and northern Aurora provinces. There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2-3 meters (6.6-9.8 feet) above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.

A separate weather advisory warning for heavy rainfall and landslides due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Cagayan and Apayao Nov. 7 and Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte Nov. 8. 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) of rain is likely over Cagayan Nov. 6, Ilocos Norte and Batanes Nov. 7, and Ilocos Sur, Abra, and Batanes Nov. 8. Lesser rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely over most of the rest of Luzon Nov. 6-8.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued a strong wind advisory for the southern, southeastern, and northwestern coasts.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, and Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31. Further rainfall is likely to lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts. Authorities have ordered evacuations for remote communities in advance of the storm as rescuers could be unable to provide assistance during the storm. The Philippine Coast Guard suspended all sea travel in Ilocos Norte Province Nov. 5 due to rough seas. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.