Philippine Sea: Typhoon Yinxing tracking west-northwestward toward the far northern Phillippines as of early Nov. 7 /update 3

Typhoon Yinxing (known in the Philippines as Marce) is tracking west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea toward the far northern Philippines early Nov. 7. As of 05:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 496 km (308 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will weaken slightly as it tracks west-northwestward and makes two landfalls over northeastern then northern Cagayan Province in the far northeast of Luzon during the afternoon of Nov. 7. The system is then forecast to track westward across northern Apayao then northern Ilocos Norte provinces before moving into the South China Sea early Nov. 8. Yinxing is forecast to weaken as it continues westward away from the Philippines through early Nov. 10 before turning to track southwestward towards central Vietnam as it weakens into a tropical storm through Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 7, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge exceeding 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union. PAGASA has issued the following wind signal warnings as of early Nov. 7:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Northern mainland Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands and northeastern Apayao provinces.

• TCWS 3: southern Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and northern Abra provinces.

• TCWS 2: The rest of Batanes, northern and central Isabela, the rest of Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, northern Ifugao, northern Benguet, Ilocos Sur, and northern La Union provinces.

• TCWS 1: The rest of La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Benguet, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central Aurora, northern Nueva Ecija, and northern Zambales provinces.

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall and landslides due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte Nov. 7 and over Ilocos Norte Nov. 8, while totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are likely over Batanes, Ilocos Sur, and Abra Nov. 7 and Ilocos Sur, Apayao, and Babuyan Islands Nov. 8. Lesser rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely over most of the rest of northern Luzon Nov. 7-8.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, and Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31. Further severe weather associated with Yinxing will likely lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts. Authorities have ordered evacuations for remote communities in advance of the storm as rescuers may be unable to assist during the storm. Airlines canceled some flights connecting Manila and Basco with Clark and Tuguegarao Nov. 6-7 and Manila and Basco with Clark and Laoag Nov. 8. The Philippine Coast Guard suspended all sea travel in Ilocos Norte Province Nov. 5 due to rough seas. Officials have halted classes in parts of the northern Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.