Philippine Sea: Typhoon Yinxing tracking westward toward the far northern Phillippines as of Nov. 6 /update 2

Typhoon Yinxing (known in the Philippines as Marce) is tracking westward across the Philippine Sea toward the far northern Philippines Nov. 6. As of 17:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 524 km (326 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen slightly as it tracks west-northwestward and passes very close to northeastern Cagayan Province in the far northeast of Luzon during the afternoon Nov. 7. The system is then forecast to track westward between northern Luzon and the Babuyan Islands before moving into the South China Sea early Nov. 8. Yinxing is forecast to weaken as it continues westward away from the Philippines through early Nov. 10 before turning to track southwestward as it weakens into a tropical storm through Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 6, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge exceeding 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur. PAGASA has issued the following wind signal warnings as of Nov. 6:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Northeastern mainland Cagayan Province.

• TCWS 2: Batanes, the rest of Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, northern Isabela, Apayao, northern Kalinga, northern Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur provinces.

• TCWS 1: The rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, northwestern Pangasinan, the rest of Abra, the rest of Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and northern Aurora provinces.

A separate weather advisory warning for heavy rainfall and landslides due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte Nov. 7-9 and totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are likely over Cagayan Nov. 6-7, Abra and Batanes Nov. 7-8, and Ilocos Sur, Abra, and Batanes Nov. 8-9. Lesser rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely over most of the rest of northern Luzon Nov. 6-9.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, and Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31. Further severe weather associated with Yinxing is likely to lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts. Authorities have ordered evacuations for remote communities in advance of the storm as rescuers could be unable to provide assistance during the storm. The Philippine Coast Guard suspended all sea travel in Ilocos Norte Province Nov. 5 due to rough seas. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.