Philippines: Super Typhoon Man-yi tracking northwestward off the east coast of Luzon as of Nov. 17 /update 10

Typhoon Man-yi (known in the Philippines as Pepito) is tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea and is approaching the east coast of Luzon in the Philippines Nov. 17, having passed over Catanduanes Island late Nov. 16. As of 17:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 165 km (103 miles) northeast of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make another landfall over central Aurora Province in the coming hours. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken significantly but remain a typhoon as it tracks rapidly northwestward across Luzon before exiting into the South China Sea late Nov. 17. The system is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward then west-northwestward away from the Philippines Nov. 18-early Nov. 19. Man-yi is likely to weaken further as it turns to track westward and then south-southwestward across the South China Sea Nov. 19 before weakening into a tropical depression as it passes south of Hainan Province, China, Nov. 20, and then dissipating as it approaches central Vietnam Nov. 21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds and rough seas to the northern and central Philippines. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching more than 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities along the western coast of Ilocos Region, Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, and Bicol Region. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 5 (the highest level on a five-tier scale): Central Aurora, southern Quirino, and southern Nueva Vizcaya

• TCWS 4: The rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, southern Ifugao, Benguet, southern Ilocos Sur, La Union, eastern Pangasinan, northern Nueva Ecija, and the eastern and northern Polillo Islands

• TCWS 3: Southern Isabela, the rest of Ifugao, Mountain Province, southern Abra, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Pangasinan, eastern and northern Tarlac, the rest of Nueva Ecija, northern Bulacan, and northern Quezon including the rest of the Polillo Islands

• TCWS 2: The rest of Isabela, southwestern mainland Cagayan, Kalinga, southern Apayao, the rest of Abra, Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, central and eastern Quezon, Camarines Norte, and northwestern Camarines Sur

• TCWS 1: The rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, Batangas, northern Occidental Mindoro including the Lubang Islands, northern Oriental Mindoro, northwestern Romblon, Marinduque, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, northern Sorsogon, and Burias Island

PAGASA has also issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to Man-yi. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, and Pangasinan provinces Nov. 17-18. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Quezon, Isabela, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Benguet, Abra, Nueva Ecija, La Union, Bulacan, and Rizal provinces Nov. 17-18 and lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over Metro Manila, Ilocos Sur, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Laguna, and Camarines Norte provinces Nov. 17-18. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for low-lying, flood-prone, landslide-prone, and coastal areas of Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas regions, affecting hundreds of thousands of people; nearly 500,000 people have been evacuated in Bicol Region alone. A state of calamity has been declared in Quirino Province, Santiago and Cabagan in Isabela Province, Dilasag in Aurora Province, Aguinaldo in Ifugao Province, and Paracelis in Mountain Province. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern and central Philippines. Damage has been reported on Catanduanes Islands following the passing of the storm, including downed power lines and stress, structural damage to buildings, and debris on roads. Flooding and landslides have also been reported in Albay and Camarines Sur provinces, but no major damage or casualties have been confirmed in these areas.

Airlines have canceled dozens of domestic and several international flights across the central and northern Philippines Nov. 17-18. The Land Transportation Office suspended bus and public utility vehicle trips to the Visayas and Mindanao to avoid congestion at Matnog Port in Sorsogon. Authorities have closed ports across the northern and central Philippines; more than 2,500 people are stranded at ports in Bicol Region and over 2,000 more across other areas of Eastern Visayas and southern Luzon due to the suspension of sea travel.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.