Philippines: Typhoon Yinxing tracking westward toward the far northern Phillippines as of Nov. 7 /update 4

Typhoon Yinxing (known in the Philippines as Marce) is tracking westward in the far western Philippine Sea and is approaching the far northern Philippines on Nov. 7. As of 14:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 457 km (284 miles) north-northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will make landfall in the coming hours over Santa Ana Municipality in the far northeast of Cagayan Province. The system is expected to then weaken slightly as it moves over the southern Luzon Strait and makes another landfall over northwestern Cagayan Province late Nov. 7. The system is then forecast to track westward across far northern Apayao then northern Ilocos Norte provinces before moving into the South China Sea early Nov. 8. Yinxing is forecast to strengthen slightly as it tracks westward then west-northwestward away from the Philippines through Nov. 9 before weakening as it turns to track southwestward Nov. 10. The system is expected to weaken further into a tropical storm and then a tropical depression as it tracks southwestward over the South China Sea toward south-central Vietnam Nov. 11-12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 7, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge exceeding 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union. PAGASA has issued the following wind signal warnings as of Nov. 7:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Northern Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, northern Apayao, and northern Ilocos Norte provinces.

• TCWS 3: The rest of Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte, as well as Batanes, northern Abra, and northern Ilocos Sur provinces.

• TCWS 2: The rest of Abra and Ilocos Sur and northern and central Isabela, Kalinga, Mountain Province, northern Ifugao, northern Benguet, and northern La Union provinces.

• TCWS 1: The rest of La Union, Ifugao, Benguet, and Isabela, as well as Pangasinan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, northern Aurora, northern Nueva Ecija, and northern Zambales provinces.

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall and landslides due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte Nov. 7-8 and over Ilocos Norte Nov. 8-9, while totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are likely over Batanes, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, and Abra Nov. 7-8 and Ilocos Sur, Apayao, and Babuyan Islands Nov. 8-9. Lesser rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely over much of the rest of northern Luzon Nov. 7-9.

Authorities have evacuated more than 17,000 people from northern coastal areas of Cagayan Province and nearly 500 people in Apayo Province ahead of the storm's approach. Airlines canceled at least nine connecting Manila with Basco, Clark, Laoag, and Tuguegarao Nov. 7-8. The Philippine Coast Guard suspended all sea travel in Ilocos Norte Province from Nov. 5 due to rough seas. Officials have halted classes in parts of the northern Philippines.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, and Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31. Further severe weather associated with Yinxing (Marce) will likely lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.