South China Sea: Tropical Storm Toraji tracking northwestward away from the Philippines as of Nov. 12 /update 4

Tropical Storm Toraji (known in the Philippines as Nika) is tracking northwestward over the South China Sea away from the Philippines Nov. 12, having made landfall as a typhoon near Dilasag in Aurora Province during the morning Nov. 11 and tracked across Luzon. As of 14:00 PHST Nov. 12, the system's center of circulation was approximately 524 km (326 miles) southeast of Hong Kong, China.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will initially strengthen slightly as it tracks northwestward over the South China Sea toward southern China Nov. 12-13, before weakening into a tropical depression as it turns to track west-southwestward early Nov. 14. The system will likely dissipate as it tracks southwestward to the east of Hainan Island Nov. 14-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 12, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to far northwestern regions of the Philippines Nov. 12. PAGASA is maintaining a Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) for parts of northern Ilocos Norte, northern Apayao, northwestern Cagayan, and the northwestern Babuyan Islands.

The China Meteorological Administration is maintaining a blue typhoon warning (the lowest level on a four-tier scale), advising of strong winds in southern coastal regions over the coming days.

Flooding, damage, and associated disruptions are ongoing in parts of the northern and north-central Philippines following the passing of the storm. Authorities evacuated more than 32,000 people from at-risk areas of Bicol, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and Ilocos regions ahead of the approach of Toraji. More than 150,000 people have been affected by the storm across five regions of the Philippines, of which more than 17,000 people remain displaced as of early Nov. 12. Dozens of roads and bridges remain impassable across parts of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Cordillera, and Ilocos regions. Power outages are affecting at least 29 municipalities across Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon regions as of Nov. 12. Around 180 passengers remain stranded at seaports in Bicol and Calabarzon regions due to the suspension of sea travel during the passing of the storm. Classes and work remain suspended across hundreds of municipalities across the eastern and northern Philippines. Dozens of flights were canceled across parts of Luzon Nov. 11; however, services are gradually starting to resume normal operations Nov. 12, with some residual disruptions likely as airlines work to clear passenger backlogs.

Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, and most recently Typhoon Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines), which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across parts of the region. More than 640,000 people remain evacuated following damage caused by the storms, with the worst affected Cagayan Province. Further severe weather associated with Toraji (Nika) and related disruptions will likely hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.