South China Sea: Typhoon Man-yi tracking northwestward off the west coast of Luzon as of early Nov. 18 /update 11

Typhoon Man-yi (known in the Philippines as Pepito) is tracking northwestward in the South China Sea away from the west coast of Luzon in the Philippines early Nov. 18, after having made landfall over Catanduanes Island late Nov. 16 and Dipaculao in Aurora Province the afternoon of Nov. 17. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 385 km (239 miles) north-northeast of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward then west-northwestward away from the Philippines Nov. 18 and early Nov. 19. Man-yi is likely to weaken further as it turns to track west-southwestward across the South China Sea Nov. 19 and pass south of Hainan Province, China, Nov. 20 before dissipating as it approaches central Vietnam early Nov. 21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds and rough seas to the northern and central Philippines. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Northern and western Ilocos Sur, northwestern La Union, and western Abra

• TCWS 2: Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Abra, western Mountain Province, Benguet, and northern Zambales

• TCWS 1: Apayao, Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, western Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and central Zambales

PAGASA has also issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to Man-yi. Rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Cagayan, Aurora, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Batanes, and Isabela Nov. 19. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for low-lying, flood-prone, landslide-prone, and coastal areas of Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Central Visayas regions, affecting more than 1.2 million people; nearly 500,000 people have been evacuated in Bicol Region alone. A state of calamity has been declared in Quirino Province, Santiago and Cabagan in Isabela Province, Dilasag in Aurora Province, Aguinaldo in Ifugao Province, and Paracelis in Mountain Province. Classes are suspended in parts of the northern and central Philippines. Damage has been reported on Catanduanes Island following the passing of the storm, including downed power lines and stress, structural damage to buildings, and debris on roads. Flooding and landslides have also been reported in Albay and Camarines Sur provinces, but no major damage or casualties have been confirmed in these areas.

Airlines have canceled dozens of domestic and several international flights across the central and northern Philippines Nov. 16-18. The Land Transportation Office suspended bus and public utility vehicle trips to the Visayas and Mindanao to avoid congestion at Matnog Port in Sorsogon. Authorities have closed ports across the northern and central Philippines; more than 2,500 people are stranded at ports in Bicol Region and over 2,000 more across other areas of Eastern Visayas and southern Luzon due to the suspension of sea travel.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.