South China Sea: Typhoon Yinxing tracking westward across the South China Sea as of early Nov. 8 /update 5

Typhoon Yinxing (known in the Philippines as Marce) is tracking westward in the far eastern South China Sea away from the far northern Philippines early Nov. 8 following two landfalls in Cagayan Province over Santa Ana Municipality around 15:40 Nov. 7 and the town of Sanchez-Mira around 21:00. As of 05:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 448 km (278 miles) north of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen slightly as it tracks westward away from the Philippines through the afternoon of Nov. 9 before weakening early Nov. 10. Yinxing is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to track southwestward and makes a close approach to Hainan Province, China, early Nov. 11, passing southeast of the island before weakening further into a tropical depression as it tracks southwestward over the South China Sea toward south-central Vietnam through early Nov. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 8, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge exceeding 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union. PAGASA has issued the following wind signal warnings as of early Nov. 8:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Ilocos Norte, far northern Ilocos Sur, northern Abra, northwestern Apayao, and northwestern mainland Cagayan provinces.

• TCWS 3: Southern and western Babuyan Islands, northern and western portions of Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, central Abra, and northern Ilocos Sur provinces.

• TCWS 2: Southern Batanes, the rest of Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, northern and western Isabela, the rest of Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, northern Ifugao, northern Benguet, the rest of Ilocos Sur, and northern La Union provinces.

• TCWS 1: The rest of Batanes, the rest of La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Benguet, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central Aurora, northern Nueva Ecija, and northern Zambales provinces.

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall and landslides due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) is likely over Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, and Abra, and lesser rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely over La Union, Kalinga, and Cagayan Nov. 8.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; light to moderate rain is forecast in the southeastern coastal areas of Guangdong Province, and strong winds are likely over the coasts of Fujian and eastern Guangdong provinces.

Authorities have evacuated more than 160,000 people ahead of the storm's approach, including more than 21,000 people from northern coastal areas of Cagayan Province and nearly 500 people in Apayo Province. Basco (BSO), Laoag International (LAO), Palanan, and Tuguegarao (TUG) airports have canceled flights. Cauayan Airport (CYZ) also canceled non-scheduled flights to Isabel. Due to rough seas, the Philippine Coast Guard suspended all sea travel in Ilocos Norte Province from Nov. 5. Officials have halted classes in parts of the northern Philippines.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, and Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31. Further severe weather associated with Yinxing (Marce) will likely lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.