23 Dec 2024 | 03:19 PM UTC
Madagascar: Further political protests likely nationwide through late December following election results /update 3
Further rallies, protests, increased security likely in Madagascar through late December following release of Dec. 11 election results.
Further political rallies, protests, and associated heightened security measures and disruptions are likely in Madagascar through late December following the release of the Dec. 11 municipal elections results. On Dec. 20, the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) delivered its provisional results. In Antananarivo, the most disputed election, Harilala Ramanantsoa of the ruling "All Together With Andry Rajoelina" (IRMAR) coalition leads with 43.2 percent, followed by Tojo Ravalomanana with 36.2. Ravalomanana has already appealed the results. Definitive results are expected in January. On Dec. 21, the CENI's website showed Ravalomanana as the winner and Ramanantsoa second; the publication was deleted and the CENI claims its website had been hacked. Several individuals have been arrested in connection with the alleged hacking of the website.
Election periods in Madagascar are typically disruptive, with disputed results often leading to civil unrest. Security forces are prone to use force, especially during street protests in support of opposition candidates. Clashes between activists from rival political camps or between protesters and police are common. Labor and student organizations may also take advantage of the increased political focus to stage protests or strikes in support of their own agendas. Likely civil unrest locations include governmental buildings, universities, and political party headquarters. In Antananarivo, potential hotspots include Place du 13 Mai, Avenue de l'Independance, Mahamasina stadium, and the University of Antananarivo's Ankatso campus.
Increased security is likely nationwide, particularly near polling booths, along key thoroughfares and near government buildings. Measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and vehicle or pedestrian searches. Localized curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions are possible to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. In the capital, authorities will likely restrict pedestrian access to prominent city squares and other public areas. Security will probably be at its tightest on election day and in the days following. Localized business and transport disruptions are likely.
Monitor trusted sources and local media for possible spontaneous protests, especially due to the contested results. Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent areas where large demonstrations are taking place. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Heed the instructions of local authorities. Refrain from publicly discussing politically sensitive topics; refrain from wearing orange clothing due to its association with the ruling party.
Malagasy citizens are electing mayors and councilors in 1695 municipalities. In Antananarivo, seven candidates are running: Harilala Ramanantsoa of the ruling IRMAR coalition, and Tojo Ravalomanana, son of former president Marc Ravalomanana, were the favorites. The campaign ended on Dec. 9, without any significant disruptions being reported. However, the opposition has warned of alleged voter fraud after authorities extended voters' registration date through Dec. 4; and while election day was mostly peaceful, some irregularities were reported.
These are Madagascar's third polls in recent months following the presidential elections in November 2023 and the parliamentary elections in May 2024. Both were won by incumbent President Andry Rajoelina and his IRMAR coalition. Both elections were considerably contested by the opposition parties. Rajoelina was reelected after six weeks of violent protests, which resulted in increased police presence, the closure of Antananarivo's main avenue, and overnight curfews. The legislative elections featured incidents of violence, inconsistencies, and possible fraud noted by independent observers. Some opposition candidates accused the government of irregularities and have called for their supporters to closely supervise the ballot counting.
