03 Jan 2025 | 08:17 AM UTC
Bangladesh: Ongoing protests, related disruptions likely to continue nationwide through at least late January
Ongoing rallies, related disruptions likely to persist across Bangladesh through at least late January. Increased security likely.
Further rallies and associated disruptions are likely across Bangladesh into at least late January as the interim government works to stabilize the country following the ousting of long-time Prime Minister and Awami League (AL) leader Sheikh Hasina. On Dec. 31, thousands gathered at Shaheed Minar in Dhaka to mark the student-led uprising that removed Hasina in August 2024. Similar demonstrations took place on Dec. 29 to honor those who lost their lives during the July uprising. Student groups, including Students Against Discrimination, have called for additional rallies, demanding formal recognition of the uprising by Jan. 15.
Additionally, a Dhaka court has rejected bail for Krishna Das Prabhu, a religious leader from the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON), who faces sedition charges. Since his arrest on Nov. 25, related protests, primarily by the Hindu community, have occurred nationwide, particularly in Chattogram and Dhaka. On Dec. 2, an attack on the Bangladesh Assistant High Commission in Agartala, India, linked to Das' detention, has also prompted protests. Potential gathering sites include Indian diplomatic facilities, Hindu temples, universities, public squares, and thoroughfares.
Civil Unrest
Unionized garment and other manufacturing workers continue to hold work stoppages and disruptive multi-day sit-ins along arterial roads, causing intermittent factory closures and traffic disruptions, mainly in Dhaka Division. Student organizations also regularly hold marches and road blockades over several demands, such as improvements in administration, investigations into the former government, action against alleged repression of student activists, a ban on AL-related student unions, job reservation criteria, as well as constitutional amendments. The AL party will probably hold sporadic rallies to demand that Hasina return to office; several AL leaders and family members have reportedly been killed in violent incidents. Minority groups, including Hindus, have staged demonstrations following targeted attacks at various residences, businesses, and places of worship.
Future demonstrations will likely attract large crowds, especially near transportation hubs, public squares, and major intersections. The highest participation is likely in the capital Dhaka; popular gathering locations include Shaheed Minar, Suhrawardy Udyan, Raju Memorial Sculpture, university campuses, and major intersections like Shahbhag Square. Sporadic security incidents, such as arson, looting, and vandalism, will probably continue to target cultural sites, media offices, government buildings, and AL offices and leaders' residences. Political tensions will likely intensify if attempts are made to hold fresh elections.
Depending on the severity of the perceived threat, authorities could use force to disperse overly unruly crowds and enact enhanced security measures, including temporary public movement restrictions. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of opposing groups, are possible. Additional isolated security incidents, such as arson, targeted killings, and vandalism, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized business and transport disruptions are likely in the vicinity of protests. Increased security measures are likely at government, state-funded, and security installations. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points to major cities and air and sea ports. Indian authorities are also imposing intensive security along the land border with Bangladesh due to concerns about spillover violence and illegal passage.
Avoid all demonstrations due to possible violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm ground transport and flight arrangements before departure; do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks, as protesters could attack vehicles. Plan accordingly for business disruptions. Heed all official security and traffic advisories. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Protests, initially led by university students against a controversial job quota system favoring descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans, peaked when Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled after her residence was stormed. An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has since been established, with military officials in talks with student leaders about the transition. The interim government’s tenure remains uncertain, but Yunus has announced that general elections could take place by late 2025 or early 2026. The administration has also prioritized democratic reforms, including efforts to depoliticize institutions and create a fair and transparent electoral process.
