Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi tracking westward toward northern Madagascar early Jan. 10

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is tracking westward in the western Indian Ocean toward northern Madagascar early Jan. 10. As of 00:01 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 782 km (486 miles) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm late Jan. 10 as it tracks westward and makes landfall over Diana Region, Madagascar, late Jan. 11 before exiting into the Mozambique Channel shortly after. Dikeledi is forecast to weaken slightly but remain a severe tropical storm as it turns to track southwestwards and passes south of Mayotte late Jan. 12. The system will approach Nampula Province in Mozambique late Jan. 13, and is forecast to track southward, parallel to the coast, through late Jan. 14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur in the coming hours and days.

As of early Jan. 10, Meteo Madagascar issued a green (lowest level on the three-tier scale) cyclone alert; widespread flooding, river flooding, and landslides are likely in the northern part of the country. Officials advise maritime users from Cap d'Ambre to Vatomandry and those between Cap d'Ambre and Besalampy to return to land and not venture out to sea by the evening of Jan. 10 and Jan. 11, respectively. Authorities also issued green heavy rain warnings in east central Madagascar and green strong wind and heavy swell warnings in the country's north, northwest, northeast, and west central parts. Officials will likely update or rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.