Mozambique: Severe Tropical Storm Dikeledi tracking westward as it approaches the coast of Nampula Province Jan. 13 /update 5

Severe Tropical Storm Dikeledi is tracking westward in the Mozambique Channel toward Nampula Province in Mozambique Jan. 13. The system previously passed over far northern Madagascar following landfall between the towns of Antsiranana in Diana Region and Vohemar in Sava Region late Jan. 11 before passing south of Mayotte Jan. 12. As of 11:00 CAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 48 km (30 miles) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall over Nampula Province south of Nacala in the coming hours. After landfall, Dikeledi is expected to weaken slightly as it tracks southwestward and then south-southwestward over Nampula Province Jan. 13-early Jan. 14, before moving back out into the Mozambique Channel. The system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical cyclone as it tracks southward and then south-southeastward over the Mozambique Channel Jan. 14-16. Dikeldi is expected to weaken slightly as it tracks southeastward off the southwest coast of Madagascar late Jan. 16-early Jan. 17 and will transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues to move southwestward away from Madagascar Jan. 17-18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur in the coming hours and days.

As of Jan. 13, the Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for much of Namupla and parts of Zambezia provinces. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast in the region through at least Jan. 14. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) with localized heavier amounts and winds gusting up to 150 kph (93 mph) are possible in affected areas.

Meteo France Mayotte is maintaining a red cyclone alert (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) as of Jan. 13, although wind and rainfall are expected to reduce in intensity over the coming hours as the storm system moves away from the territory. Around 14,500 people were being accommodated in 79 emergency shelters established across Mayotte as the storm system passed Jan. 12. Dzaoudzi–Pamandzi International Airport (DZA) remains closed due to the storm, and ferry crossings between islands are also suspended. Much of Mayotte is still recovering after the devastating impact of Tropical Cyclone Chido, which struck the territory Dec. 14.

Meteo Madagascar has rescinded all cyclone alerts associated with Dikeledi as of Jan. 13; however, further alerts may be issued as the system moves towards the southwest of the country and various weather warnings remain in place across parts of the country. Authorities have issued red heavy rainfall warnings across Alaotra-Magoro, Analjirofo, and Atsinanana regions and coastal areas of Boeny, Sofia, and Diana regions. Yellow heavy rainfall warnings are in place across parts of central Madagascar. Red strong wind warnings are in place for northwestern coastal areas between Bobaomby and Vilanandro, as well as yellow strong wind warnings for western coastal areas from Vilanandro to Morondava and green strong wind warnings for southwestern coastal areas from Morondava to Vohimena. Red, yellow, and green heavy swell warnings have been issued for coastal areas roughly corresponding to the strong wind warning areas. Officials will likely update or rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in Madagascar have confirmed three fatalities associated with the passing of Dikeledi and more than 1,700 people have been affected across parts of Analjirofo, Diana, and Sava regions, with Vohemar District in Sava Region amongst the worst affected areas. More than 250 people have been displaced and are being housed in five emergency shelters. Around 330 houses have been flooded and at least 68 have been destroyed or damaged. A number of roads in affected areas have been made impassable due to floodwaters and landslides. Damage assessments are ongoing in the region and further reports of damage and casualties are possible over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.