10 Jan 2025 | 04:45 PM UTC
Philippines: Tight security, rallies, related disruptions likely nationwide through at least mid-June in connection with May 12 general election period
Tight security, rallies, disruptions likely in Philippines through at least mid-June for May 12 general election period. Exercise caution.
Political rallies, increased security measures, and related disruptions are likely in the Philippines through at least mid-June in the lead-up to and aftermath of the May 12 general election period. The campaign will run Jan. 12-May 10, with results released between May 13-19. Local candidates' campaign period will be March 28-May 10, while national candidates, senators, and party-list groups will campaign Feb. 11-May 12. Various political parties will likely stage rallies to mobilize grassroots-level support. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, sports stadiums, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended rallies could attract hundreds of thousands of participants.
Authorities will increase security and enforce a nationwide gun ban. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) will establish checkpoints in several regions Jan. 11-June 12. The Comelec's Provincial Joint Security Control Center has classified election areas into four categories: Green (1,239 areas with no security concerns), Yellow (188 areas with past election-related incidents or political rivalries), Orange (177 areas with armed threats), and Red (38 areas with serious threats, potentially requiring Comelec control). Additional police and military forces will be deployed to Red zones, particularly in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
There is a heightened risk of terror attacks and clashes, particularly in areas categorized as Orange and Red by the Comelec, which could lead to temporary curfews or movement restrictions. Opportunistic crime, such as theft and looting, may increase in regions with large gatherings or disrupted security. Authorities will likely implement additional measures to control potential unrest and ensure public safety throughout the election period. Significant disruptions to localized business and transport services are likely.
Avoid all demonstrations, political rallies, political party offices, and polling stations, as a precaution. If violence erupts, immediately leave the area for a secure, non-governmental building or your nearest embassy. Use alternative routes to avoid election-related events; allow additional time to reach destinations. Prepare for possible delays at checkpoints. Exercise increased caution if operating in potential hot spots for election-related violence, as well as any areas under strong NPA, APF and/or separatist influence. Where possible, postpone travel to hotspot areas, especially May 12. Confirm business appointments and travel reservations May 12. Always carry valid identification and heed all instructions from security personnel.
The May 12 election will include the mid-term polls, the first-ever Bangsamoro Parliamentary Elections (BEP), and the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections (BSKE). The election period will likely be marked by increased political instability and violence.
Philippine presidents are limited to a single six-year term, while local officials, district representatives to the lower house, and 12 nationally elected senators are subject to mid-term elections every three years. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte are engaged in a political rivalry for influence over the Senate and the broader political landscape. A recent alleged assassination threat against President Marcos Jr. and claims of budgetary misuse have prompted an investigation into Vice President Sara Duterte and potential impeachment. The President is also facing scrutiny due to allegations of abuse of power and corruption. This political division may contribute to increased election-related tensions and violence.
Insurgent forces such as the New People's Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) remain active in remote areas and the southern regions of the country, alongside sporadic violent clan feuds. Government forces and Maoist rebels have been engaged in conflict since the 1950s, with insurgency-related incidents and terror tactics being a frequent occurrence.
