Yemen: US Air Campaign and Its Implications for Regional Security

The principle that "the enemy always gets a vote" is particularly relevant in the case of the Al-Houthis. Officially known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), the group emerged in the late 1980s and took control of Sana'a and other major cities in northwestern Yemen in September 2014. By March 2015, Saudi Arabia launched a military campaign to remove them from power and restore a government aligned with its interests. However, years of conflict took a toll, and by April 2022, Saudi Arabia and its key ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), opted for a ceasefire after enduring persistent drone and missile attacks on major cities.  

The UAE faced a similar predicament. In January 2022, Al-Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH) and an industrial zone. Emirati officials reported explosions involving at least three petroleum tankers in Mussaffah and a fire at a construction site in AUH, killing three people and injuring six others. Lacking a major US commitment to counter Al-Houthi aggression, Abu Dhabi sought an entente with the group to de-escalate tensions. Since then, the Al-Houthis have issued threats against Saudi Arabia and the UAE but have yet to act decisively. However, evolving regional dynamics could change this, potentially reigniting the Yemeni civil war and triggering the group to target the UAE again. 

The current US military campaign is markedly different from those conducted under the Biden administration. The recent airstrikes were more extensive and sustained. If the Al-Houthis refuse to comply with Trump's conditions, Washington will likely escalate by targeting the group's economic infrastructure. Unlike the US and UK's strikes, Israel's approach has extended beyond military assets to economic lifelines, including oil storage facilities and ports. If the US follows this model, Al-Houthis may intensify military operations in Ma'rib, an oil-rich governorate where they control 12 of 14 districts. However, Ma'rib City and al-Wadi remain under the Yemeni internationally recognized government based in Aden.  

Ma'rib's strategic significance is twofold: it holds vast oil and gas reserves and is located only 200 km (124 miles) east of Sana'a. Controlling Ma'rib City would grant Al-Houthis economic leverage and a pathway into Shabwah Governorate, effectively dividing southern Yemen. The last major battle over Ma'rib in 2022, fueled by UAE support for anti-Houthi factions, prompted Al-Houthis to retaliate against Emirati targets. If the US airstrikes persist, the group may once again launch an offensive, escalating the conflict and deepening instability.   

Washington's campaign has also led to increased Al-Houthi attacks on Israel. The group has demonstrated its capability to target Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) in Tel Aviv and other critical Israeli infrastructure. In recent weeks, the Al-Houthis claimed additional strikes against US warships in the Red Sea. Despite their ceasefire with the UAE, renewed hostilities could emerge due to Abu Dhabi's support for factions opposing Al-Houthis in Ma'rib and its continued collaboration with the US and Israel.  

The UAE has also expanded its military footprint on the Yemeni archipelago of Socotra, a governorate comprising multiple islands in the northwest Indian Ocean. Of particular interest is Abd al-Kuri, where Abu Dhabi is reportedly constructing a joint military base and airfield in cooperation with Israel. Reports suggest that this facility, involving multiple Gulf states and with support from Washington, could serve intelligence and military purposes, including interdicting Iranian weapons shipments to Al-Houthis.  

Despite the intensity of Washington's air campaign, it has yet to achieve its strategic objectives. History has shown that the Al-Houthis are resilient, capable of recovering from setbacks and retaliating with force. Their ability to escalate tensions - whether through an offensive in Ma'rib or attacks on US allies - remains a serious threat, complicating the already volatile security landscape in the region.  

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