South Africa: Eskom to increase load shedding nationwide until further notice as of May 2 /update 5

Event

South Africa's energy provider, Eskom, issued a statement on May 1, noting an increase in the levels of load shedding and changing the schedule through May 4 at least. Load shedding will proceed as follows:

• 05:00 May 2-16:00 May 2: Stage 4

• 16:00 May 2-05:00 May 3: Stage 6

• 05:00 May 3-16:00 May 3: Stage 4

• 16:00 May 3-05:00 May 4: Stage 6

• 05:00 May 4-16:00 May 4: Stage 3

• 16:00 May 4-23:59 May 4: Stage 5

The utility indicated that despite the return to service of three generation units, the continued shortage of generation capacity is due to further breakdowns and planned repairs. This is the latest in recent updates to its load shedding schedule. Further adjustments will likely be announced in the coming days.

Temporary commercial and communications disruptions are possible during load shedding and unscheduled interruptions. Cellular and mobile services disruptions could occur. Trains may also experience delays if outages impact signaling devices or overhead wires. Power outages could also result in temporarily unavailable essential services such as ATMs and filling stations. There is an increased security threat during power outages. Blackouts could adversely affect security protocols, including alarm systems and electronic fences; opportunistic criminal activity could increase during electricity outages. Malfunctioning traffic signals could increase transport disruptions, and the lack of public lighting may elevate the risk of driving at night. Water supply outages or decreases in water pressure may occur in areas that rely on electrical pumps for water flow.

The implementation of load shedding increases the possibility of spontaneous service delivery protests, especially in low-income areas. Some protests can last for several hours; even if a protest ends, it can resume in the coming days if demands are not met. Deadly violence is rare, with officials generally engaged in negotiations to end unrest; nonetheless, clashes cannot be discounted entirely. Reports also suggest that crime increases during load shedding, including theft, carjacking, sexual assaults, kidnapping, and murder.

Context

Load shedding requires switching off parts of South Africa's electric grid in a planned and controlled manner due to insufficient capacity or to avoid a countrywide blackout.

• Stage-1 load shedding: Allows for up to 1,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area three times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or three times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-2 load shedding: Allows for up to 2,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area six times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or six times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-3 load shedding: Allows for up to 3,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area nine times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or nine times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-4 load shedding: Allows for up to 4,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 12 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time or 12 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-5 load shedding: Allows for up to 5,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 15 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time or 15 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-6 load shedding: Allows for up to 6,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 18 times over a four-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-7 load shedding: Allows for up to 7,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area for ten hours per day.

• Stage-8 load shedding: Allows for up to 8,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted for twelve hours per day.

Despite the government's efforts, the situation is steadily worsening. South Africa experienced over 150 days of load shedding in 2022, up from 75 in 2021 and 54 in 2020. There are no clear indications of a sudden improvement: Eskom has warned that load shedding will likely not drop below stage 2 for the foreseeable future and could reach higher levels in the coming months. South Africa has not yet reached stages 7 or 8 of load shedding. There are no publicly disclosed plans for load shedding beyond stage 8.

Authorities in the City of Cape Town are likely to continue to implement support measures and supply electricity during load shedding periods. Typically, city supply will move the stage down one level from the Eskom-announced load shedding level.

Advice

Charge mobile and communication devices when possible and ensure backup batteries are available. Plan for road travel delays due to possible malfunctioning or nonfunctional traffic lights in affected areas. Exercise caution when driving in recently impacted areas. Confirm business appointments. Verify that security systems are working. Park vehicles in secure areas and complete ground movements before nightfall. Ensure that generators are functional and refuel devices where necessary.

Avoid all protests should they materialize. Heed the directives of the local authorities and monitor local media for updates, as protests will likely occur on short notice. Reconfirm the status of routes in the hours preceding travel. Reconfirm all public transport services that operate in or through the affected areas.

Resources

Eskom load-shedding schedules
Eskom (Twitter)
City of Cape Town (Twitter)
City of Tshwane (Twitter)
City of Johannesburg (Twitter)