Philippines: Adverse weather forecast across central and southern regions through at least May 5

Event

Severe weather is forecast across much of the central and southern Philippines through at least May 5. As of May 3, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) have issued a weather advisory warning of a low-pressure area located at around 10:00 PHST over the coastal waters of Laguindingan, Misamis Oriental Province, which will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rainfall over Bicol, Caraga, Davao, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and western Visayas regions. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in parts of the affected areas. The system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours.

Flooding is possible across the Bicol Region, the Visayas Islands, and much of Mindanao. As of May 3, PAGASA has issued the following flood advisories across the Philippines:

• Severe general flood advisories (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale): Agusan Del Norte, Agusan Del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Surigao Del Norte, and Surigao Del Sur provinces in Caraga Region; Davao De Oro, Davao Del Norte, and Davao Oriental provinces in Davao Region; Biliran, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, and Southern Leyte provinces in Eastern Visayas Region; and North Cotabato, Sarangani, South Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat provinces in Soccsksargen Region.

• Moderate general flood advisories: Lanao Del Sur and Maguindanao provinces in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao; Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, and Sorsogon provinces in Bicol Region; Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor provinces in Central Visayas Region; Bukidnon and Lanao del Norte provinces in Northern Mindanao Region; Aklan, Capiz, and Negros Occidental provinces in Western Visayas Region; and Zamboanga Del Norte, Zamboanga Del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay provinces in Zamboanga Peninsula Region.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA)