Mexico: Gubernatorial elections in Estado de México June 4

Event

On Sunday, June 4, Estado de México, the country’s most populous state, will hold gubernatorial elections. Delfina Gómez of the leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) leads the polls with current projections placing her at 32 percent of the vote, Alfredo Del Mazo of the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is currently in second place at 29 percent, and Josefina Vázquez Mota of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) is in third place with 18 percent. Each candidate has accused the others of corruption and promised to reform state police and reduce crime.

Political violence (attacks, assassinations) is common in Mexico and rates inevitably increase in the run-up to elections, including local, statewide, and national votes. A wave of deadly political violence, including more than 70 reported attacks against candidates, shook various regions in the period preceding the June 2015 general elections. Much of this violence is the work of organized crime groups, powerful and highly active in many areas of the country including Estado de México.

Political rallies and protests - with the potential to turn violent - are also to be anticipated in the coming weeks.

Context

The PRI has held the governor's office in the State of Mexico for over 80 years, meaning that a Morena win would signal a significant shift in Mexican politics. The gubernatorial election is also seen as a key indicator for the outcome of the presidential election in 2018. The populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Morena is a front-runner for the presidential elections and would gain significant momentum and campaign contributions from a Morena victory in the gubernatorial election.

Estado de México surrounds the country's capital Mexico City, and has experienced huge population growth. Described as a microcosm for the whole country, the state is characterized by large socioeconomic inequality. It is also considered to be one of the most insecure states in Mexico, with a 2016 poll showing that 79.2 percent of people in the state capital of Toluca felt insecure.

Advice

Individuals are advised to avoid all demonstrations and polling stations due to the risk of violence or other unrest, to keep abreast of the situation, and to avoid politically sensitive discussions in public.