UK, Ireland: Storm Christoph likely to bring flooding and related disruptions to parts of the British Isles Jan. 19-21

UK and Ireland issue warnings for heavy rain Jan. 19-21; flooding, related disruptions likely.

Event

Storm Christoph will bring rounds of heavy precipitation to much of northern and eastern England Jan. 19-21 and Ireland Jan. 19. The UK Met Office has issued an Amber rain warning, the second-highest level on a four-tier scale, in Yorkshire and Humber, North West England, East Midlands and Eastern England. The warning, which is in place until 1200 Jan. 21, indicates that heavy rainfall combined with melting snow could lead to flooding, public transport disruptions, and road blockages, particularly in rural areas. A Yellow rain warning, the second-lowest level, is in place for central and northern England, Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, and Wales as of Jan. 19; this Yellow warning will expand to cover the rest of England Jan. 20-21.

The UK Environment Agency has issued 16 warnings of imminent flooding in Cambridgeshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Merseyside, Northamptonshire, Staffordshire, and Yorkshire as of Jan. 18. Further alerts are in place in Northern England, the Midlands, and Eastern England warning that flooding is possible.

Additionally, Met Eireann in Ireland has issued Yellow-level warnings for Cavan, Connacht, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath, Meath, and Monaghan until 2100 Jan. 19, suggesting that rainfall of 30-50mm (1.2-2 inches) is forecast.

Flash and areal flooding are possible, especially in areas where the soil is saturated from previous storms. Such flooding could occur in low-lying communities near watercourses and other bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain.

The storm will likely cause transport disruptions across affected areas of the UK and Ireland through at least Jan. 21. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible on regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion.

Related disruptions could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

The forecast path of the storm could change over the coming days, and authorities could upgrade and expand coverage of the weather warnings over the coming days.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transportation reservations and business arrangements prior to travel in the affected areas through at least Jan. 21. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions if routing shipments through affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides.