US, Canada: Adverse winter weather forecast across central and US and far southeastern Canada through at least Feb. 2 /update 1

Event

A storm system is forecast to bring snow and ice to portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions of the US, as well as far southern Ontario, far southern Quebec, southern and central New Brunswick, and southern Nova Scotia in Canada through at least Feb. 2. The affected area extends from the eastern Dakotas, across the US Midwest and Canada's Ontario Peninsula, central and northern Appalachia, and into the coastal Mid-Atlantic, New England, as well as parts of the Canadian Maritimes and far southern Quebec.

Heavy snowfall is forecast to begin across the western Midwest region, late Jan. 30. Forecast models indicate the system will continue to track eastward, bringing heavy snowfall and ice to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic regions, through at least Jan. 31. Additionally, forecast models indicate an additional storm is forecast to develop bringing heavy snowfall, strong winds, and ice to the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeast regions, Jan. 31-Feb. 2. Some uncertainty remains in the forecasted track of the system and projected snow amounts are subject to changes over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of Jan. 30, the US National Weather Service (NWS) has issued winter storm warnings for central Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern areas of Illinois and Indiana, and northwestern Ohio. Winter storm warnings are also in force for an area from South-Central through Northern Appalachia, and extending from western North Carolina northeastward through West Virginia's Potomac Highlands and most of Virginia, across Maryland and the District of Columbia, and into northeastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Winter storm watches have been issued for the remainder of the affected region from the eastern Dakotas to the coastal Mid-Atlantic; winter weather advisories are in effect for far northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and southern New England.

Environment Canada has as yet issued no advisories associated with the storm.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update existing advisories as the winter storm transits the region over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The latest forecast guidance indicates that accumulations of 30-45 cm (12-18 inches) of snow are possible in mountainous areas of the Appalachians, including the West Virginia-Virginia border and south-central to northeastern Pennsylvania. Locally higher totals are possible where the heaviest and most persistent snowfall is forecast. Accumulations of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) are forecast across east-central Iowa, northern Indiana, far southern Wisconsin, northern Indiana, northern Ohio, Pennsylvania, eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, northern New Jersey, southern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, central Massachusetts, far southeastern New Hampshire, and far southern Maine. Lesser accumulations of 2.5-15 cm (1-6 inches) are expected across the rest of the affected area, including the western Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions in the US, as well as far southern Quebec, southern and central New Brunswick, and southern Nova Scotia in Canada where sleet and freezing rain mix with the snow and the precipitation are less intense. In addition to the heavy snow, strong wind gusts are likely to lead to periods of blowing and drifting snow. Blizzard conditions are possible. Sporadic power outages are possible throughout the affected area.

Transport
The inclement weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across the affected area through at least Feb. 2. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways, including the I-81, I-84, and I-95 corridors in the US, as well as the Trans-Canada Highway in Canada. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles throughout the affected area. Heavy wet snow and strong winds could bring down power lines and trees with foliage. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at regional airports.

Advice

Monitor local media for updated weather information. Verify road conditions before driving in areas where heavy snowfall is forecast. Allow extra time to reach destinations in these areas and carry an emergency kit and warm clothes if driving is necessary, especially on secondary or rural routes that could become impassable. Plan accordingly for delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area through at least Feb. 2. Confirm flights. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

US National Weather Service
US Road Conditions
Meteorological Service of Canada