Tunisia: Nationwide protests and clashes over increasing coronavirus disease-related unemployment are likely to continue through at least Feb. 28 /update 1

Event

Protests and associated clashes triggered by increasing unemployment stemming from the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic remain likely across Tunisia through at least late February after demonstrations in several major cities turned violent in recent weeks. Violence, including clashes between security and protesters, occurred in Tunis, Siliana, Sousse, Tebourba, Bizerte, Kasserine, and several other cities. The demonstrations coincide with the nation's observance of the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring.

Activists in several cities have occasionally been burning tires and blocking roads. Some protesters also engaged in acts of vandalism and looting, which led to the arrest of hundreds of people. The government has deployed the Tunisian military to some cities, including Sousse, to protect vital government agencies and institutions.

Security forces will remain in place and maintain a heightened security posture over the coming days. Security personnel will almost certainly deploy to additional locations as new demonstrations occur. Additional clashes between security forces and protesters are likely. Ground travel and business disruptions are likely near any future demonstrations. Protests may also impact major road routes, including access points to ports of entry and exit.

Security forces will almost certainly respond robustly to any future protest, including by resorting to the use of tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse. Authorities could impose nightly security-related curfews and deploy additional security forces if violence escalates in the coming days.

Context

Nationwide protests and strikes in response to socioeconomic conditions are prevalent in Tunisia. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, has further prompted concerns over the nation's instability. The global response to the pandemic has negatively impacted Tunisia's tourism industry, which constitutes almost 10 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The current unemployment rate of 15 percent will likely rise as the economic impact of COVID-19 is felt throughout the country, exacerbating issues. Eastern and southern governorates will be particularly susceptible to demonstrations in the coming weeks and months due to the scarcity of employment opportunities and lack of development.

Advice

Avoid all protest actions due to the potential for violence. Exercise caution near likely rally locations. Monitor local media for protest activity, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Confirm the availability of transport and allow additional time to reach destinations. Plan for increased security and localized transport disruptions near demonstration sites. Follow the instructions of all security officials.