Haiti: Ongoing unrest likely to persist amid Feb. 7 opposition arrests and worsening political crisis /update 2

Event

Violent opposition protests will likely persist through February as Haiti faces a political crisis over disputed presidential term limits, which is unlikely to be resolved in the immediate term. President Jovenal Moise announced that 23 people allegedly linked to a plot to overthrow and kill him Feb. 7 have been arrested, including a supreme court judge and the Haitian National Police inspector general. Opposition groups and civil society organizations maintain that Moises' term in office constitutionally ended Feb. 7; however, Moise refuses to step down until 2022, when he states his term ends.

Highly disruptive protests, including blockades, the potential destruction of property, and clashes with police, may increase in scale as the protests escalate following the recent arrests and in response to any perceived crackdown on the opposition. The largest protests are likely to center on Port-au-Prince. Flashpoints for protests in the capital include Rue Champs de Mars, Palais National, and Parliament, as well as Delmas, Petion-Ville, and the Pelerin 5 area, where the president resides. Protests outside the US Embassy are highly likely, especially among activists who believe that the US backs Moise. Large demonstrations are likely in other urban centers that have been affected by protests and highly disruptive anti-government general strikes recently, including Cap-Haitien, Jeremie, Les Cayes, Petit-Goave, Mirebalais, and Saint-Marc.

Police will probably deploy in force near all large protests, especially in Port-au-Prince. The protests carry an elevated threat of clashes. Protesters could attempt to block roads, burn vehicles, and vandalize private businesses during any protests that materialize.

Context

The accusations of an alleged coup plot take place amid an agreement among opposition leaders on a two-year transitional government plan, which would create a commission of seven opposition members and seven civil society members tasked with choosing an interim president, prime minister, and members of a transitional government. Opposition groups argue that Moise's five-year term started when his predecessor, Michel Martelly, officially stepped down in 2016; however, Moise, who took office in 2017, has stated that his term ends in 2022. The electoral calendar published by Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) supports Moise presidency through February 2022, with a controversial constitutional referendum scheduled for April 25, the first round of the presidential and legislative on Sept. 19, and the second round scheduled for Nov. 21, along with the local and municipal polls. Some opponents of Moise have further argued that the constitutional referendum called for by the president, who has been ruling by decree since January 2020, is illegal.

Given that it is highly unlikely that Moise will step down before the elections are held and that Haiti's election periods are known to be marred by violence and political instability, there is a possibility that the security situation could further worsen over the coming months. The protests will also be fueled by Haiti's severe economic crisis, ongoing fuel shortages, and general insecurity.

Advice

Avoid all protests; shelter in place if unrest occurs nearby. Monitor local media for information regarding protest activity and road closures, especially in Port-au-Prince. Do not attempt to pass through roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Confirm all business appointments.