Western Sahara: Tensions between Moroccan security forces and pro-independence Polisario Front likely to persist through late May /update 6

Event

Heightened security will likely continue in the western regions of Western Sahara through at least late May, with spates of civil unrest, retaliatory attacks, and localized supply chain disruptions remaining possible. Tensions between Morocco and the Frente Popular de Liberacion de Saguia el Hamra y Rio de Oro (Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, Polisario Front) escalated after Rabat launched a military operation in the disputed territory's Guerguerat buffer zone in November 2020. The move's immediate objectives were to stop the blockade of trucks traveling between Moroccan-controlled areas of Western Sahara and Mauritania and to ensure freedom of civilian movement and commercial activity. Moroccan authorities have blamed the Polisario Front for the demonstrations that led to severe supply chain disruptions in Guerguerat in late October. The Polisario Front, which seeks Western Sahara's independence from Morocco, has called Rabat's military operation an act of aggression and a flagrant violation of the 1991 ceasefire.

Intermittent clashes have reportedly been occurring since the military operation began. Moroccan authorities assert that the country's armed forces have been responding to fire by the Polisario Front along the UN-patrolled buffer zone since Nov. 13. Additional exchanges of gunfire, as well as mortar and other artillery strikes, remain possible along the 2,700-km (1,700-mile) Moroccan defensive wall that bifurcates the territory. The Polisario Front claims to have mobilized thousands of volunteers to join its fight against Morocco.

Civil Unrest and Transport Disruptions
Demonstrations remain possible throughout Western Sahara's main cities, including Dakhla, Guerguerat, Laayoune, and Mahbes. Such protests are unlikely to be excessively disruptive. Nevertheless, Moroccan security forces will deploy to monitor and manage any gatherings that may materialize. Violence and clashes between security forces and protesters remain possible. Demonstrations could also occur in Morocco and other areas throughout the region, including Algeria, particularly if the conflict escalates and there are significant military casualties.

Although Moroccan authorities claim to have established a security cordon and restored all commercial activity and regular traffic in Guerguerat, additional transport and supply chain disruptions remain possible in the event of a military escalation. Any such development will likely prompt the Polisario Front to target Moroccan military outposts and convoys throughout the disputed territory.

Context

Western Sahara is a former Spanish protectorate. Morocco, which has controlled the region since 1975, was engaged in armed conflict with the Polisario Front until 1991 when the UN brokered a ceasefire. Morocco maintains that Western Sahara is an integral part of its territory; while it has offered autonomy, the government in Rabat is determined to retain sovereignty over the disputed territory. Morocco controls nearly 80 percent of Western Sahara, while the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) controls the remainder. Meanwhile, the SADR, which operates a government-in-exile in Algeria's Tindouf Province and receives support from Algiers, is committed to securing independence from Morocco and creating a sovereign country in the territory.

Following the 1991 ceasefire and as part of the agreement between Morocco and the SADR, the UN established a peacekeeping mission - the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) - to oversee the armistice and to hold a plebiscite, in which the people of Western Sahara would vote for either integration with Morocco or self-determination. The referendum has yet to materialize largely due to disagreements over who is eligible to vote within the territory.

Advice

If operating in Western Sahara, exercise extreme caution until the situation stabilizes. Strictly keep away from areas near the buffer zone. Avoid all military installations, troop convoys, and concentrations of security forces, as these may be targeted for attack by the Polisario Front. Heed the instructions of local authorities, especially with regard to any special security zones or military closure areas that may be declared during any future operations. Plan accordingly for potential transportation delays and supply chain disruptions in southern Morocco and northern Mauritania. Avoid any protests that may materialize in any part of Morocco or Western Sahara.