12 May 2021 | 02:58 PM UTC
Israel: Gazan militants highly likely to launch further rocket and mortar rounds toward southern region and major cities through late May. /update 5
Further rocket attacks targeting Israel's southern region and major cities likely through late May. Retaliatory airstrikes almost certain.
Event
Gaza-based militants will almost certainly launch additional rocket and mortar attacks against Israel's southern communities and major cities, including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, amid heightened tensions. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that Gazan militants have launched over 1,000 rocket and mortar rounds toward Israel since fighting began late May 10. The recent fighting constitutes the most intense cross-border fire between Israeli and Palestinian forces since 2014. At least six Israelis and 53 Palestinians have been killed amid the violence; hundreds of others have been injured. While Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system has intercepted hundreds of projectiles, damage to buildings and infrastructure has been recorded in communities in southern and central Israel.
The IDF has responded to the persistent rocket attacks with hundreds of retaliatory airstrikes against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip; the targets include weapons depots located inside of civilian buildings. Gaza-based militant groups, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), have warned of future attacks if Israel continues to carry out airstrikes targeting residential areas of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military will almost certainly continue to conduct retaliatory airstrikes against militant targets in the territory, notably in Gaza City and Khan Younis, in response to any further attacks.
Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) briefly halted flights May 11 due to cross-border rocket fire targeting Tel Aviv; similar closures of the airport are possible amid future Gazan rocket salvos. The recent rocket barrages come amid heightened tensions between Palestinians and Israelis following the latter's effort to evict Palestinians from their homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem. Tensions will almost certainly remain at a heightened level over the coming days.
Context
Rocket and mortar attacks targeting communities in southern Israel are common. Most incidents do not result in casualties or serious damage. Israel's Iron Dome air defense system has successfully intercepted most projectiles that the Gaza-based militants launch. The security situation remains volatile, and further cross-border violence is highly likely. Israel has consistently launched military counterattacks following cross-border strikes.
Advice
Monitor local media and abide by security force directives. If possible, avoid areas within 5 km (3 miles) of the Gaza buffer zone until the security situation improves. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported in southern Israel or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement.
Individuals or entities operating in the Gaza Strip are advised to avoid known Hamas security force locations, which are common targets for Israeli retaliatory airstrikes. Establish a thorough communication plan to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip.
