China: TS Lupit tracks northeastward across southern coastal areas of Fujian Province late Aug. 5 /update 4

Event

Tropical Storm Lupit was tracking northeastward over southern Fujian Province, China, late Aug. 5, after making landfall over Shantou, morning Aug. 5. As of 23:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 463 km (288 miles) west-southwest of Taipei. Forecast models indicate the system will briefly weaken into a tropical depression as it moves northeastward into the Taiwan Strait from late Aug. 6. The system will then strengthen again into a tropical storm from Aug. 7 and make a close approach to Taiwan Aug. 7-8. Thereafter, the storm is forecast to track northeastward in the East China Sea through Aug. 9; early forecasts indicate the system may make another landfall near Ichikikushikino, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, Aug. 9 or Aug. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the system's track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur over the coming days.

Authorities have evacuated more than 33,000 residents from affected areas of southeastern China. Guangdong Province has closed dozens of tourist sites, including beaches and seaside spots, as of Aug. 5.

Government Advisories
As of early Aug. 6, the following warnings and alerts are in effect:

• China Meteorological Administration: The Fujian Meteorological Observatory has issued a yellow typhoon warning (third-highest level on a four-tier scale), with strong winds forecast over the coming hours in coastal areas of the province; heavy rainfall is also forecast in parts of Fujian Province, especially along the coast, with totals of 8-20 cm (3-8 inches) possible, along with localized greater rainfall totals of up to 28 cm (11 inches). The Central Meteorological Station has issued a blue typhoon warning (lowest level on a four-tier scale), with strong winds forecast for eastern coastal areas of Guangdong and coastal Fujian through at least late Aug. 6. Heavy rainfall is forecast for areas of southeastern Zhejiang, eastern Fujian, and south-central and southeastern Guangdong; local rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are possible in these areas through late Aug. 6.

• Taiwan Central Weather Bureau: An extremely heavy rain advisory is in effect for for Kaohsiung City and Pingtung County. A heavy rain advisory is in effect for Chiayi and Tainan cities as well as Chiayi and Taitung counties. Strong wind advisories are also in effect for Tainan and Kaohsiung cities, as well as for Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen, Lienchiang, and Pingtung counties.

Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of southeastern mainland China and most of Taiwan over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau