Zambia: Heightened security likely nationwide through late August following the announcement of election results /update 3

Event

Authorities in Zambia will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide through at least late August following the Aug. 16 announcement of the Aug. 12 general election results. The Electoral Commission Chairman announced that opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) secured victory over incumbent Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF), with 2,810,777 votes against Lungu's 1,814,201, with 155 out of 156 constituencies counted. Lungu has indicated that he might challenge the result, citing the election was not free and fair after incidents of violence were reported during voting day; Lungu has seven days to lodge a complaint with the Constitutional Court. Hichilema's supporters reportedly gathered across Zambia overnight Aug. 15-16, to celebrate the election results. As Hichilema received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of the polls; there will be no second round of voting scheduled.

Further gatherings and celebrations are likely in the coming days. Tensions between the supporters of rival candidates and activists from opposing political groups could increase following the announcement of the results. Localized business and transport disruptions could occur during any demonstrations that may materialize. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible as forces attempt to disperse any gathering.

Context

This is the sixth time Hichilema has run for the presidency and the third time he has challenged incumbent Lungu. Elections in Zambia have typically been largely peaceful, although some violent incidents have occurred recently. On June 15, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) temporarily banned all campaigning by the PF and UPND in the Lusaka, Mpulungu, Namwala, and Nakonde districts due to political violence. It also prohibited all political roadshow convoys nationwide in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19, limiting road campaigning events to no more than one vehicle equipped with a public address system. On voting day, two people were killed in the North West province. Sporadic violence may persist in the coming weeks and may escalate if Lungu challenges the result.

Advice

If operating in Zambia, exercise increased personal vigilance in the coming weeks. Avoid all demonstrations and election-related events as a precaution. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe non-governmental building. Monitor trusted local news sources for developments. Heed all instructions from security personnel and allow extra time to reach destinations near rally locations.