Afghanistan: Tensions to remain high nationwide over coming weeks as Taliban consolidates power as of early September /update 1

Event

Tensions are likely to remain high in Afghanistan over the coming weeks following the Taliban's capture of the country. The militant group controls all of Afghanistan's territory as of early September and is working to form a government in Kabul. The Taliban will probably maintain a heightened security posture across Afghanistan, and especially in Kabul and other major cities and main transport routes, to ensure order and prevent possible security disturbances. Taliban fighters have used violence to control unruly crowds, including firing warning shots and live ammunition at civilians.

In Kabul, the Taliban will likely maintain checkpoints and other measures in the coming weeks amid threats from Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). A 21:00-dawn curfew remains in place in the capital, preventing residents from leaving home; however, enforcement has varied. Taliban leaders have secured Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) following the departure of US troops Aug. 31, and intense security measures are likely to remain in place near KBL over the near term. Taliban leaders are reportedly finalizing a deal with Turkey and Qatar to operate KBL, but commercial flight disruptions are likely to continue and could intensify until the deal takes effect. Domestic flights have resumed, and some charter flights have been flying US citizens and at-risk Afghan nationals from Mazar-e-Sharif International Airport (MZR) in recent days; however, the Taliban has reportedly withheld takeoff clearance from some flights seeking to depart MZR.

Taliban leaders have offered amnesty to everyone in the country; however, central leadership does not exercise effective control over all Taliban factions. Numerous reports from across the country indicate that Taliban fighters have conducted raids looking for individuals that aided NATO operations in the country and have carried out abductions and killings. Extortion and kidnapping by opportunistic criminal groups are possible, especially along highways.

Anti-Taliban forces, comprised of local militias, former military and special forces personnel, members of the ousted government, and forces loyal to Ahmad Massoud, have been active in parts of the country. Armed conflict between Massoud's National Resistance Front (NRF) and Taliban forces has been concentrated in and around the Panjshir Valley, in Panjshir, Baghlan, and Kapisa provinces. While the Taliban declared victory in Panjshir Province Sept. 6, Massoud's NRF has vowed to continue fighting in the valley. Clashes in some areas have reportedly killed dozens of people. Fighting could also take place in other areas of the country without warning.

Locals may continue to stage demonstrations over various issues in the coming weeks. Protesters have gathered in multiple cities, including Kabul, Herat, Jalalabad, and Khost, resulting in clashes with Taliban forces. Taliban fighters have also reportedly opened fire on protesters to disperse crowds. If they occur, demonstrations are particularly likely in northern provinces and the Hazarajat region, where the Taliban have less support.

The terrorism threat is likely to remain high in the country over the near term. IS-K militants have claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing attack in Kabul Aug. 26, which killed dozens of people outside of KBL. IS-K also reportedly intended to detonate a car bomb near KBL, but a US drone strike hit the vehicle before the intended attack. Several rocket attacks have also occurred targeting Kabul, especially KBL, in recent days. Additional suicide bombings and rocket attacks remain likely, as IS-K militants are opposed to the ruling Taliban. IS-K operatives could also target foreigners and religious minority groups. Taliban fighters may launch operations against IS-K militants in the coming weeks, potentially leading to more clashes.

The Taliban controls all international land border crossings. Although some border crossings have reopened, Taliban officials reportedly only permit Afghans with active visas to enter neighboring countries. Some reports indicate that the Taliban have reached deals with some nations to permit Afghan citizens to enter nearby countries. Taliban fighters have erected blockades and vehicle checkpoints, where the collection of illicit taxes and kidnapping of vehicle occupants may occur. There have also been reports of violence at some borders. Pakistani militias fired on Afghan civilians at the Torkham border crossing in late August and the Pakistan Army and Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP) fighters in Afghanistan have reportedly fought along the Afghan-Pakistani border near Bajaur, Pakistan.

Disruptions to business operations, public transport, and aid agencies are likely nationwide. Goods shortages have reportedly occurred due to business closures, shipping delays, and looting and could continue nationwide. Prices of essential commodities have risen amid shortages, especially in Kabul, and may prompt panic buying. Banks have begun to reopen, but cash shortages and long lines are likely near available branches as civilians attempt to withdraw money. Consular services may be unavailable, particularly outside of Kabul. Western embassies have temporarily suspended their consular services in Kabul. Other countries, including China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran, continue to operate their diplomatic missions in the capital.

Advice

Defer all nonessential travel to Afghanistan until the security situation stabilizes. Foreign nationals should strongly consider exiting the country, if possible. Maintain close contact with your diplomatic representation. Do not depart for the airport until flight service is confirmed; check the status of routes and the airport before departure. Maintain a low public profile and dress conservatively.

Follow official directives. Exercise caution and avoid any protests. Defer travel to sites with ongoing security operations; if operating in such an area, remain sheltered in a secure indoor location, away from windows. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, road status, and deliveries in advance. Ensure contingency plans account for business and transport disruptions.

Resources

Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority NOTAM
Ministry of Interior Affairs
Ministry of Defence