Georgia: Further opposition demonstrations likely through at least Nov. 10 /update 2

Event

Supporters of ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili could hold further demonstrations in the coming weeks to demand his release from prison. Related protests could take place in central Tbilisi and other major cities and outside the 12th Penitentiary in Rustavi, where Saakashvili is being held. Demonstrations could intensify around the second round of local elections, scheduled for Oct. 30, as well as on Nov. 10, when Saakashvili is due to appear in court.

Authorities will deploy additional personnel to monitor any demonstrations. Large crowds and related security measures, including possible road closures and movement restrictions, will likely prompt transport disruptions in the surrounding area. Clashes between police and protesters have taken place at protests in Rustavi in recent days; further such incidents are possible. Security services may resort to riot control measures, including tear gas and water cannon against unruly activists. Bystanders are unlikely to be directly targeted in any violence but would face an indirect threat of harm.

Context

Thousands of protesters gathered on Freedom Square and Rustaveli Avenue in central Tbilisi on the evening of Oct.14; the demonstration passed off without major incident. Saakashvili was detained by authorities on Oct. 1, soon after returning to Georgia following eight years out of the country; he then began a hunger strike that sparked concerns for his health from supporters. Saakashvili was wanted for corruption charges, which he claims are politically motivated.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and to mitigate associated disruptions. Heed instructions from security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Check for transport disruptions before beginning journeys and allow extra time for travel in demonstration areas.