Russia: Troop movements and military build-up reported near border with Ukraine as of Nov. 15

Event

Media outlets are continuing to report Russian troop movements near the border with Ukraine as of Nov. 15. The Ukrainian military reports that around 90,000 Russian troops are deployed near Yelnya, in Smolensk Oblast, while the movement of large bodies of troops and military materiel has also been reported in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts in recent weeks. The Ukrainian military has also repeatedly stated that an unknown number of Russian troops are permanently stationed in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants. Moscow has dismissed accusations that the movements are evidence of Russian belligerence, stating that the troop movements within its borders are non-threatening.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia, as well as near the border with Ukraine and in areas where additional military units are deployed.

Context

The US Secretary of State issued a warning to Russia Nov. 12 against attempting military aggression on Ukraine. The reports of troop movements come during a period of heightened tensions between Russia and various Western governments and organizations including the US, the EU, and NATO. Additionally, tensions with Ukraine over the conflict in the Donbas are also elevated following Ukraine's use of an attack drone against separatist forces on Oct. 26. However, Russia's motivation for the troop movements remains unclear.

Russia periodically conducts large military drills and inspections in areas bordering Ukraine before moving the bulk of the deployed forces back to their designated bases elsewhere in Russia. The reports of elevated troop numbers in western regions of Russia also come after the extensive Zapad 2021 military exercises that were held in Belarus Sept. 10-16. Tens of thousands of Russian troops were moved through areas bordering Ukraine en route to military training grounds in Belarus and some elements of these forces may have remained in western Russia. While these forces are unlikely to threaten neighboring countries, regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any maneuvers that could be interpreted as belligerent. Russia could continue to use such deployments to raise or ease tensions along its western border in reaction to regional developments in the coming months. Strong rhetoric is possible, but there is unlikely to be any military escalation in the immediate term.

Advice

Allow additional time for travel in affected areas. Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.