22 Nov 2021 | 03:28 PM UTC
Russia: Troop movements and military build-up reported near border with Ukraine as of Nov. 22 /update 1
Russian troop movements and military build-up reported near border with Ukraine as of Nov. 22; cross-border military escalation unlikely.
Event
US and Ukrainian officials continue to report Russian troop movements and deployments in western regions of Russia bordering Ukraine, as of Nov. 22. The Ukrainian military reports that the forces deployed in Yelnya, Smolensk Oblast, have increased to 114,000 troops, while an unknown number of additional troops are also deploying in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. While the movement of large bodies of troops and military materiel were previously reported in the Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts, additional large movements have since been reported near Maslovka in Belgorod Oblast and around Platov International Airport (ROV) in Roston-On-Don Oblast. Some media reports indicate Russia has mobilized reservist troops; however, this would indicate a potential escalation and remains unconfirmed. Additionally, the Ukrainian military has repeatedly stated that an unknown number of Russian troops are permanently stationed in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants.
Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia, as well as near the border with Ukraine and in areas where additional military units are deployed.
Context
Tensions are currently heightened between Moscow and various Western governments and organizations, including the US, the EU, and NATO. Tensions are also elevated with Ukraine over the conflict in southeast Ukraine and the transit of Russian gas through the country.
While Moscow previously dismissed accusations that the troop movements are belligerent, Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Nov. 18, raised the issue of obtaining long-term security guarantees from the West to ensure that Russia's "red lines" on Ukraine and NATO activity in the region are respected. NATO exercises featuring approximately 1,500 troops will take place in Latvia, which borders Russia, Nov. 22-Dec. 4. Putin also highlighted the increased presence of US and NATO naval vessels in the Black Sea. While the Russian president did not explicitly connect increased NATO activity to the recent movements of Russian troops, by highlighting these issues, along with the sale of US weaponry to Ukraine, he may be indicating the actions that Russia finds particularly troubling on its borders. However, Russia's motivation for the troop movements remains unclear.
While these forces are unlikely to threaten neighboring countries, regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any maneuvers that could be interpreted as belligerent. Russia could continue to use such deployments to raise or ease tensions along its western border in reaction to regional developments in the coming months. Strong rhetoric is possible, but there is unlikely to be any military escalation in the immediate term.
Advice
Allow additional time for travel in affected areas. Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.