Russia: Troop movements and military build-up continue near border with Ukraine as of Dec. 9 /update 3

Event

As of Dec. 9, US and Ukrainian intelligence agencies continue to report that around 70,000-110,000 Russian troops are deployed in regions bordering or close to Ukraine. While a large number of the troops are deployed near Yelnya, in Smolensk Oblast, significant troop movements have also been reported in Russia’s Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Rostov-on-Don, and Voronezh oblasts, which all border Ukraine. In recent days, deployments have continued, most notably to the Voronezh Oblast; however, Russia appears to have increased operational security and now conducts many transfers at night, increasing the difficulty of assessments. These deployments represent a significant strengthening of forces already deployed in these areas and add to military materiel that was based in these localities following large-scale military maneuvers in March 2021.

Additionally, the Ukrainian military has repeatedly stated that an unknown number of Russian troops are permanently stationed in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants, as well as in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Some media reports indicate Russia has mobilized reservist troops; however, this would indicate a potential escalation and remains unconfirmed.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia and near the border with Ukraine, and in areas where additional military units are deployed. Despite the recent deployments, the current threat to businesses operating in Ukraine is unchanged, and there is currently no sign of any potential impediment to entry and exit of foreign and local nationals, excepting current COVID-19-related restrictions.

Context

While Moscow previously dismissed accusations that the troop movements are belligerent, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously raised the issue of obtaining long-term security guarantees from the West to ensure that Russia's "red lines" on US military assistance to Kyiv and US and NATO activity in the region are respected. While the Russian president did not explicitly connect increased NATO activity to the recent movements of Russian troops, by highlighting these issues he may be indicating the actions that Russia finds particularly troubling on its borders. US President Joe Biden warned Putin in a meeting on Dec. 7 of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Putin no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, Biden explicitly ruled out the deployment of any NATO forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any maneuvers that could be interpreted as belligerent. Russia could continue to use such deployments to raise or ease tensions along its western border in reaction to regional developments in the coming months. Strong rhetoric is possible, but a descent into all-out conflict remains unlikely. Nevertheless, actions short of war, including aggressive military manoeuvres and additional troop deployments, are possible. Disruptive (anonymous) cyberattacks and isolated border incidents, including along the Ukrainian and Polish borders with Belarus, are also possible, as is an escalation of separatist violence in the conflict areas of the Donbas in Eastern Ukraine.

While the additional military capabilities likely represent sufficient capacity, Moscow’s intention is unclear and the possibility of Russian military action cannot be ruled out. In such an eventuality, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any Western economic retaliation can be mustered.

Advice

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions.