Kazakhstan: Violent protests ongoing in Almaty and other cities Jan. 5; state of emergency declared in Nur-Sultan /update 3

Event

Violent protests are ongoing in Kazakhstan Jan. 5; the actions began Jan. 2 over fuel price hikes but have escalated to broader anti-government protests. President Toqayev declared a state of emergency in the capital, Nur-Sultan Jan. 5-19; a state of emergency was previously declared in Almaty and Mangystau regions over the same period. A 23:00-07:00 nightly curfew is in effect in those areas with movement restrictions within, into, and out of affected cities.

As of Jan. 5, the most significant protests are taking place in Almaty city, where thousands of activists have been protesting since Jan. 4, particularly around Republic Square; large numbers of security forces are deployed throughout the city. Riot police have used tear gas, stun grenades, and rubber bullets during clashes with protesters. Activists broke through security cordons into the regional government building (Akimat) the morning of Jan. 5; fires have since been reported from within the building. Reports suggest activists are clashing with police as they try and force their way into the nearby Presidential Residence. Unconfirmed media reports suggest that protesters have seized firearms and riot control vehicles from security forces and used them against police, injuring several.

Protests and clashes have occurred in several other cities, including Aktau, Zhanaozen, Kostanay, Atyrau, Skymkent, and Taraz, often focused around government facilities such as local Akimats. Significant protests have not currently been reported in Nur-Sultan.

Large security force deployments are likely in all affected locations; police will act forcefully to disperse any gatherings that materialize. Reports indicate telecommunications disruptions nationwide amid the unrest, with Telegram, Signal, and WhatsApp mobile applications experiencing outages. Additional protests, clashes, and telecommunications disruptions are highly likely in major cities in the coming days.

Context

The initial cause of the unrest was the recent lifting of price caps on liquified petroleum gas (LPG), which caused a doubling of LPG prices. Thousands of people denounced the price hikes in Zhanaozen Jan. 2, with related protests then spreading to other parts of the country. The purpose of the protests has broadened in many areas beyond fuel prices to include other issues including government corruption, low wages, and unemployment.

The government announced late Jan. 4 that it would restore the price ceiling in Mangystau Region, and President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev accepted the resignation of the country's government in a presidential decree Jan. 5. The president has appointed Deputy Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov as interim prime minister, while the rest of the former administration will remain in office until the formation of a new government.

These concessions have so far not appeased activists and protests are likely to continue in several cities in the coming days. Authorities will deploy large numbers of security forces to all affected locations to suppress protest activity; the use of significant force against protesters resulting in serious injury or death could further inflame activists.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Prepare for movement and telecommunications disruptions and heightened security measures in areas subject to the state of emergency and related restrictions. Exercise caution and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.