Russia: Russian troops remain deployed near border with Ukraine as of Jan. 6 /update 4

Event

As of Jan. 6, at least 100,000 additional troops remain deployed in regions bordering or close to Ukraine ahead of a series of international meetings to discuss the situation from Jan. 9. US and Russian representatives will meet in Geneva Jan. 9-10. Talks on the situation will take place between NATO and Russia on Jan. 12, which will be followed Jan. 13 by discussions involving the US, Russia, and European nations. Russia has presented a list of demands, including on NATO activity in Eastern Europe as well as guarantees that Ukraine will not be permitted to join NATO. While overt Russian military action against Ukraine is less likely during the talks, Western diplomats are expected to strongly oppose the Russian demands, which could prompt an escalation in tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border, as well as an uptick in violent incidents in the Donbas conflict in the coming weeks. Maritime incidents in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea are also increasingly possible as Russia attempts to reinforce its bargaining position.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia and near the border with Ukraine, and in areas where additional military units are deployed. Despite the recent deployments, the current threat to businesses operating in Ukraine is unchanged, and there is currently no sign of any potential impediment to entry and exit of foreign and local nationals, excepting current COVID-19-related restrictions.

Context

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously raised the issue of obtaining long-term security guarantees from the West to ensure that Russia's "red lines" on US military assistance to Kyiv and US and NATO activity in the region are respected. US President Joe Biden warned Putin in a meeting on Dec. 7 of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Putin no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, Biden explicitly ruled out the deployment of any NATO forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any maneuvers that could be interpreted as belligerent. Russia could continue to use such deployments to raise or ease tensions along its western border in reaction to regional developments in the coming months. Strong rhetoric is possible, but a descent into all-out conflict remains unlikely. Nevertheless, actions short of war, including aggressive military maneuvres and additional troop deployments, are possible. Disruptive (anonymous) cyber attacks and isolated border incidents, including along the Ukrainian and Polish borders with Belarus, are also possible, as is an escalation of separatist violence in the conflict areas of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Although a large number of the troops are deployed in Smolensk Oblast, bordering Belarus, significant troop movements have also been reported in Russia's Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Rostov-on-Don, and Voronezh oblasts, which all border Ukraine; however, Russia appears to have increased operational security and now conducts many transfers at night, increasing the difficulty of assessments. These deployments represent a significant strengthening of forces already deployed in these areas and add to military materiel that was based in these localities following large-scale military maneuvers in March 2021.

The Ukrainian military has also repeatedly stated that an unknown number of Russian troops are permanently stationed in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants, as well as in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Some media reports indicate Russia has mobilized reservist troops; however, this would indicate a potential escalation and remains unconfirmed.

While the additional military capabilities likely represent sufficient capacity, Moscow's intention is unclear and the possibility of Russian military action cannot be ruled out. In such an eventuality, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any Western economic retaliation can be mustered.

Advice

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions.