Kazakhstan: Further unrest, extremely tight security likely nationwide through at least mid-January following recent violent protests /update 7

Event

The government of Kazakhstan will almost certainly keep an exceptionally heavy security presence deployed through at least mid-January in response to a recent series of violent protests that has erupted in many cities across the country. Authorities have declared a nationwide state of emergency, which will remain in force through at least Jan. 19. A nightly 23:00-07:00 curfew is in effect, freedom of movement is restricted, and mass gatherings remain prohibited.

Demonstrations began in Zhanaozen Jan. 2 in reaction to a major hike in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices before spreading to other locations across the country and expanding to encompass broader issues, such as government corruption, low wages, and unemployment. Significant protests and associated clashes have occurred in Aktau, Aktobe, Almaty, Atyrau, Kostanay, Nur-Sultan, Oral, Shymkent, Taraz, Taldykorgan, and Zhanaozen. Most of the actions have taken place near government facilities, such as local Akimats (regional government buildings), and in central squares; however, protesters have also targeted media organizations and transportation hubs. Numerous incidents of looting, vandalism, and arson have been reported. Security personnel have been quick to use force to disperse demonstrators. Preliminary information indicates that at least 30 demonstrators and 13 police officers have been killed in unrest-related clashes; casualty figures will likely rise as the situation becomes more clear over the coming days.

A contingent of Russian troops arrived in Almaty Jan. 6 in response to a request by President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an international military alliance consisting of six former Soviet states, assist Kazakhstan in restoring order. The CSTO will reportedly be deploying a peacekeeping force of Russian, Armenian, Belarusian, and Tajik troops to Kazakhstan for a limited period to stabilize the country.

Transportation
Significant transport disruptions will likely continue in cities most affected by protests and security forces activity over the coming days. Aside from road traffic disruptions resulting directly from the demonstrations, there have been widespread domestic and international flight cancellations. Several airlines, including Air Arabia (G9), Azerbaijan Airlines (J2), and flydubai (FZ), have temporarily suspended all flights to Almaty due to the unstable security situation. Moreover, protesters briefly occupied Almaty International Airport (ALA) late Jan. 5, although security forces subsequently retook control of the facility early the following morning. Aktau International Airport (SCO) was also forced to temporarily shut down operations due to disruptive protest activity Jan. 5.

The Kazakhstani Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has refuted media reports claiming that the government has temporarily prohibited all foreign nationals from entering the country; MFA officials assert that no such ban is in place. Furthermore, local officials in Russia report that ground border crossings connecting the Chelyabinsk and Orenburg oblasts with Kazakhstan are operating normally. Nevertheless, such restrictions on international entry cannot be ruled out in the future if protests do not abate.

As of Jan. 6, railway stations in Almaty are closed and checkpoints have been established at all entrances to the city. Authorities have also closed sections of certain motorways and rail lines in Aktobe, Atyrau, Nur-Sultan, and North Kazakhstan oblasts. At least 25 passenger and 120 freight trains have been canceled nationwide.

Infrastructure
Disruptions to internet services and media broadcasts have been occurring intermittently, primarily as part of the government's effort to control the flow of information and prevent activists from organizing. Outages could occur with little-to-no warning until the demonstrations abate.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan closed all banks nationwide for the day Jan. 6 citing security concerns. Banks probably will not reopen until at least Jan. 10, given traditional closures in observance of the Jan. 7 Orthodox Christmas holiday.

Context

The wave of unrest in Kazakhstan erupted and spread largely spontaneously with no clear leader or activist group as the driving force. Such a lack of a political movement leading the protests makes it unclear as to how long the demonstrations will continue.

President Toqayev has made a number of concessions in an effort to pacify the demonstrators. He has ousted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his position as head of the country's National Security Council and has taken the position himself, in addition to accepting the resignation of the cabinet led by Prime Minister Askar Mamin and directing the new acting cabinet to reinstitute price caps on LPG. However, these moves have so far not appeased activists, and protests will likely persist in several cities, especially in Almaty.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to the country until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution if operating in Kazakhstan and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Prepare for movement restrictions, telecommunications disruptions, and other heightened security measures until at least Jan. 19. Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Confirm flight status if scheduled to travel via Kazakhstani airports; do not check out of accommodations unless onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.