Afghanistan: Militant attacks targeting rallies possible during Liberation Day Feb. 15

Event

Militant groups, especially the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), may conduct attacks on Liberation Day Feb. 15. Militants will most likely target Liberation Day rallies, which celebrate the country's liberation from the Soviet Union in 1989. Civilian groups and the Taliban administration may organize commemorative events, mainly in provincial capitals and the national capital, Kabul. Liberation Day is also commemorated at religious venues as the Soviet withdrawal marked the end of Marxist values in the Islamic country.

Although the Taliban has not publicized specific plans, official events attended by the Taliban leadership are possible at government buildings in Kabul. Taliban personnel will likely heighten security near events, including closing nearby roads and conducting patrols. Localized transport disruptions are likely near large events and rallies. Clashes may break out over the usage of the Afghanistan flag, which the Taliban replaced with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan flag, when it seized power.

Context

Fighting between the Taliban and ISK has escalated since the Taliban took control over the country in August 2021. ISK militants tend to target large gatherings, especially in Shi'a mosques, as well as Taliban personnel. ISK fighters often use explosives, including improvised explosive devices (IEDs) as well as suicide bombers.

Advice

Avoid rallies and events due to possible attacks. If violence occurs nearby, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a safe, secure building. Follow all security personnel instructions. Allow additional travel time near gatherings.