Russia, Ukraine: US government orders the departure of most staff from the US Embassy in Kyiv Feb. 12 /update 15

Event

The US has ordered the departure of most staff from the US Embassy in Kyiv on Feb. 12 due to the continued threat of Russian military action against Ukraine. Consular services at the embassy will be suspended from Feb. 13; a small consular presence will be maintained in Lviv for emergencies but will not provide passport, visa, or routine consular services. Additionally, American and British authorities on Feb. 11 called on their citizens to depart the country immediately "while commercial means are still available." Other foreign governments or embassies may issue similar advice, including evacuation orders, in the coming period.

Several other foreign governments previously announced the withdrawal of some embassy staff and their dependents, including Canada, the UK, and Japan. Consular services will likely be reduced at diplomatic missions that have withdrawn staff. Several governments have also amended their travel advisories for Ukraine. Australia advises against all travel to Ukraine, while Canada advises against nonessential travel. The US has also updated its Do Not Travel advisory for Belarus due to unusual Russian military activity along Belarus’ border with Ukraine.

In the coming days, additional governments may issue similar travel advisories for Belarus or Ukraine - or for Russian border regions. The recent advisories have not been issued in response to any specific publicly available intelligence warning of an imminent attack but are a response to Russia's deployment of substantial numbers of troops near Ukraine's borders and concerns that the Kremlin could order an invasion.

Although flights departing Kyiv and other Ukrainian airports could become crowded in the coming days, there is currently no sign of any potential obstacle to entry and exit by foreign or local nationals, except current COVID-19-related restrictions. Belarusian COVID-19 restrictions prohibit the exit of nationals and many permanent residents via land borders.

The security situation could deteriorate at short notice, and impediments to international travel would be likely, particularly at Ukrainian airports, in the event of a Russian attack. An outbreak of hostilities would further impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support.

Russia previously announced that it would unilaterally impose aviation and maritime restrictions over parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov adjacent to Crimea Feb. 13-19 during military exercises in the region. The restrictions impact areas of the Black Sea stretching westward from Crimea towards Odessa and southwestward towards Bulgaria, as well as the southern portion of the Sea of Azov. While Russia previously advised commercial shipping and aviation to avoid the area due to live-fire drills, the advisory has since been lifted, and it is unclear at this time whether the restrictions will be disruptive.

Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine as of Feb. 12 amid continued Russian troop deployments to areas bordering Ukraine. In recent days, several amphibious assault ships and other naval vessels have entered the Black Sea to participate in naval exercises set to conclude Feb. 20. Russia has also reportedly increased troop deployments to the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts. The recent deployments bolster the personnel and equipment previously positioned in these areas as well as elsewhere in southwestern Russia, including the Rostov and Voronezh oblasts.

Additionally, many Russian troops deployed in Belarus are encamped in areas close to the Belarus-Ukraine border, most notably near the towns of Luninets, Rechitsa, and Yelsk. Russian forces are ostensibly in Belarus to conduct joint maneuvers through February. Exercises will be held across Belarus, including in areas bordering Ukraine, and will likely serve to further pressure Kyiv.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruptions on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Belarus and Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia or Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, and in areas where additional military units are deployed.

Military escalation on the shared border and an uptick in violent incidents in the Donbas conflict are possible. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible amid a high level of naval activity by multiple nations in these waters. Belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a cyberattack Jan. 14 that disabled several government websites.

Ukrainian police also arrested a group of individuals Jan. 30 whom they accuse of planning mass riots in several cities with the aim of further destabilizing the security situation in the country. The US has also warned that Russia may be seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine, such as a false flag attack, and the risk of an invasion was high should diplomacy fail.

Context

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain heightened despite continued diplomacy. French President Emanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin Feb. 7 to discuss the situation. Following the meeting in Moscow, Putin indicated a compromise was possible, though no major breakthroughs were reached. Macron then met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv Feb. 8 where the French president suggested Putin had agreed there would be no further military escalation or deterioration of the security environment. Both Macron and US President Joe Biden will hold calls with Putin Feb. 12 in ongoing efforts to deescalate the situation.

Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. In turn, the US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Moscow no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Strong rhetoric is likely and descent into all-out conflict remains possible. In the event of a conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any large-scale, coordinated Western economic retaliation can be mustered. Moscow may also assess that a limited military incursion would incur less severe economic sanctions and choose to limit any offensive action to existing conflict zones in the Donbas and oblasts along eastern borders.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Ukraine and Ukrainian border areas of Russia and Belarus and withdrawing nonessential staff until the situation stabilizes. If planning to leave, book flights as early as possible and arrive at the airport early to prevent your seat from being allocated to a standby passenger; allow additional time for processing. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries, monitor local media for updates on the situation, and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.

Resources

US Embassy in Ukraine