Mozambique: Adverse weather forecast across northern and central provinces through at least Feb. 19

Event

Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of northern and central Mozambique through at least Feb. 19. The affected area includes Cabo Delgado, Manica, Nampula, Niassa, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia provinces. The adverse weather is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dumako, which crossed northern Madagascar Feb. 15-16. Rainfall accumulations of up to 20 cm (8 inches) per 24 hours are possible in the affected regions, as well as thunderstorms and winds of up to 65 kph (40 mph).

As of Feb. 17, the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued the following weather warnings:

• Red heavy rainfall warning (the highest level on a three tier scale): Cabo Delgado, Manica, Nampula, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia provinces.

• Orange heavy rainfall warning: Niassa Province.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)