UK, Ireland: Storms to bring adverse weather across the region through at least Feb. 20 /update 4

Event

Adverse weather is forecast to continue across much of Ireland and the UK through at least Feb. 20. Storm Dudley passed over Ireland and central parts of the UK Feb. 17-18 and disruptions are ongoing following the storm. Storm Eunice is forecast to impact Ireland and the UK Feb. 18, bringing extremely strong winds, heavy rainfall, snowfall, and possible flooding. The strongest winds are likely in southwestern Ireland, southern Wales, and southwestern England. Winds in excess of 80 kph (50 mph), with gusts in excess of 130 kph (81 mph), are forecast in Cork and Kerry counties in Ireland. Some coastal flooding is possible on the Irish coast, especially at high tide. Parts of southern Wales and southwestern England are forecast to experience inland wind gusts of 113-129 kph (70-80 mph) and around 145 kph (90 mph) in coastal areas. Snow is possible in areas north of the strongest winds as the weather front draws in cold arctic air. Up to 20 cm of snowfall could occur over higher ground, with scattered showers possible across Northern Ireland, northern England, and southern and central Scotland.

Following the passage of storm Dudley, reports indicate disruptions in parts of Ireland and the UK. The Electricity Supply Board (ESB) in Ireland reported that a few thousand homes, including 1,600 in Tullamore, County Offaly, lost power due to the heavy rainfall and strong winds brought by Dudley. There were also isolated reports of downed trees blocking minor roads.

Thousands of people in northeast England, Cumbria, North Yorkshire, and Lancashire were left without power due to Dudley, although authorities have restored power to most households Feb. 17. Reports indicate one fatality in Marston Green, West Midlands, UK, late Dec. 16 due to strong winds from Storm Dudley. Somerset and Gloucestershire counties have declared emergencies due to the storms.

Government Advisories
As of Feb. 18, Met Eireann has issued the following warnings across Ireland:

• Red wind warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Clare, Cork, Kerry, and Waterford counties.

• Red storm warning: from Carlingford Lough to Roche's Point to Erris Head and on the Irish Sea.

• Orange wind warning: Carlow, Dublin, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Wicklow, Munster, and Galway counties.

• Orange storm warning: from Erris Head to Malin Head to Belfast Lough.

• Orange snow warning: Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo, and Roscommon counties.

• Yellow wind, rain, and snow warning: across Ireland.

The UK Met Office has issued the following warnings across the UK for Feb. 18:

• Red wind warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale): for parts of far southern Wales and southwestern England.

• Amber wind warning: for Wales and southern and central England.

• Yellow wind and snow warnings: for Northern Ireland, northern England, and southern and central Scotland.

England's Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales, and Scottish Environment Protection Agency have issued dozens of flood alerts across the UK and one flood warning in England as of Feb. 18. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is especially possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides are possible in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur in storm-affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. The Dartford Crossing on the M25 and Orwell Bridge on the A14 in Suffolk are closed. Authorities have warned that the Severn crossings, the M4 Prince of Wales Bridge, and the M48 Severn Bridge are likely to be closed due to strong winds. Stagecoach has suspended all services in South Wales through at least 13:30 Feb. 18 while Bus Eireann has also suspended services.

Authorities canceled all trains in Scotland late Feb. 16, with most services resuming early Feb. 17. Reports also indicate train service disruptions between London and Leeds Feb. 16. Some rail operators are advising customers not to travel Feb. 18 due to likely disruptions associated with Storm Eunice. ScotRail has suspended local Glasgow and Edinburgh to Arbroath train services north of Dundee and local Montrose to Aberdeen trains Feb. 18. Officials also canceled all train services in Wales Feb. 18, with disruptions likely to continue through at least Feb. 20. Cross Country trains are scheduled to run a reduced timetable Feb. 18, with services only running between Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly, Reading and Leicester and Cambridge, Derby and Bristol Temple Meads, and Edinburgh and York.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Gatwick Airport (LGW) and East Midlands Airport (EMA) have advised passengers to check their flight status with their airline. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track blockages.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations before traveling in affected areas. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Met Eireann
Met Office UK
Scottish Environment and Protection Agency Flood Updates
Environment Agency England Flood Alerts
Natural Resources Wales Flood Warnings