Mozambique: Adverse weather forecast across central and northeastern regions through at least March 17

Event

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are forecast across Manica, Nampula, Sofala, and Zambezia provinces through at least March 17. Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued orange warnings for moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across the four provinces. Between 3-5 cm (1-2 inches) of rainfall is expected in the affected provinces, with localized amounts of over 10 cm (4 inches). The downpours will be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds.

The adverse weather is associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gombe, which has caused flooding and disruptions across the region after making landfall in Nampula Province as an intense tropical cyclone early March 11 and tracked westward across northern Mozambique and southern Malawi before dissipating March 13. Further heavy rainfall is likely to exacerbate the situation where the ground is already saturated and hamper recovery efforts.

As of March 16, authorities have reported 20 fatalities associated with Gombe and at least 82 people have been injured. The storm has affected over 400,000 people across Nampula and Zambezia provinces, leaving around 24,000 displaced and causing damage to around 77,000 homes. Power outages have been reported in the affected area and many roads have been damaged, leaving some communities cut off.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)