Kenya: Nationwide election-related gatherings and unrest are likely in late April during the ongoing party primaries

Event

As of April 19, election-related gatherings, demonstrations, and unrest are likely across Kenya over the coming days coinciding with ongoing political party primaries. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has informed parties to submit the list of candidates for the August 2022 general elections before April 22.

Sporadic instances of related violence have already been reported in several locations. Security forces deployed at a polling station in Mombasa County to break up clashes between supporters of rival Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidates on April 9. Additionally, a group of youth burned ballots in Embu after attacking the United Democratic Alliance's (UDA) election ballots transporting vehicles on April 13. On April 19, police arrested three people in possession of weapons in Kisumu Central.

During party nominations, additional gatherings, rallies, and meetings are likely. These could occur in major cities like Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu and near party offices, major government buildings, city centers, and prominent public squares. Clashes and accusations of vote-rigging are likely due to persistent tension between rival candidates. Clashes between security forces and protesters are also possible. Officials may implement telecommunication and mobile internet outages, curfews, and roadblocks, during periods of unrest.

Context

Most parties have joined one of the two major coalitions-the Azimio la Umoja One-Kenya Alliance and the Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA). The former has nominated ODM leader Raila Odinga as their presidential candidate, while KKA has picked UDA leader and incumbent Deputy President William Ruto.

Furthermore, the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) mapped out 23 counties Feb 18 as possible hotspots for violence before, during, and after the August elections. The regions include Kisumu, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Mombasa, Nairobi, Migori, Kericho, Isiolo, Lamu, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Trans Nzoia, Marsabit, Kiambu, Nyamira, Homa Bay, Nandi, Bomet, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Garissa, and Siaya. The NCIC also singled out 36 bloggers affiliated with the Azimio La Umoja Movement and the Kenya Kwanza political groupings for spreading hate speech ahead of the August polls.

Advice

Avoid gatherings due to possible violence. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately. Comply with all security personnel instructions. Allow additional travel time near rallies and protests. Confirm business appointments in advance.