Japan: Tropical Storm Aere making landfall over northern Okinawa late July 2

Event

Tropical Storm Aere is making landfall over northern Okinawa as of late July 2. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 59 km (37 miles) northeast of Kadena Airbase.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks northwestward and curves north-northwestward in the East China Sea July 3. The storm is forecast to further weaken to a tropical depression as it takes a turn to track northward and then northeastward July 4, before making landfall over the island of Kyushu in southwestern Japan July 5. The system will continue to lose intensity as it tracks east-northeastward across southern and central Honshu July 6-7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 2, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued red high wave warnings for Amami Region and Okinawa Main Island. Yellow heavy rainfall, flood, landslide, storm, and thunderstorm warnings have been issued for northern Okinawa Main Island. Yellow storm, high wave, and thunderstorm warnings have been issued across other parts of Okinawa and the Amami islands. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned that strong winds and high waves are expected in the Okinawa and Amami areas July 2-4. Winds of up to 83 kph (52 mph) and gusts of up to 126 kph (78 mph) are expected over Okinawa and Amami, as well as waves of up to 6 meters (20 feet). Heavy rainfall is also expected over Okinawa, Amami, and Kyushu regions July 3-4, which could trigger landslides and flooding in the affected regions. Daily rainfall totals of up to 20 cm (8 inches) over Okinawa, 12 cm (5 inches) in southern Kyushu, and 10 cm (4 inches) in the Amami islands are expected July 3. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) in southern Kyushu, 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) in northern Kyushu, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in the Amami islands are expected July 4.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Korea Meteorological Administration
China Meteorological Administration