Afghanistan: Heightened security likely in Afghanistan for Ashura Aug. 7-8

Event

Security forces will likely be on high alert across Afghanistan through at least Aug. 8 for the Shi'a Muslim observance of Ashura, which begins late Aug. 7. Dates may vary slightly according to lunar sightings. Worshipers will stage mourning processions to and from imambargahs (traditional Shi'a congregation halls), mosques, and other sites from July 29 through Ashura, when the largest congregations will occur. Authorities will likely elevate security around all Shi'a religious sites and near procession routes, especially in major urban centers with significant Shi'a populations, such as Herat, Kabul, and Mazar-e-Sharif. Low to moderate participation is likely despite Taliban officials' assurances to allow such Shi'a observances that do not comply with the group's strict interpretation of Islam.

Militant attacks targeting Shi’a religious sites and congregations are possible during the Ashura period. Groups, notably the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), have recently staged attacks targeting minority communities, including Shi’a neighborhoods, such as Kabul's Dasht-e-Barchi. Sectarian violence is also possible. Protests and enhanced security measures, including telecommunication and movement curbs, are possible if a mass-casualty attack or significant clashes occur.

Ashura processions could prompt traffic delays in areas with considerable Shi'a populations. Authorities may enforce road closures and traffic restrictions, especially along the procession routes. Some local businesses may alter business hours Aug. 7-9.

Context

Ashura commemorates the death of Hussein ibn Ali, Muhammad's grandson, at the Battle of Karbala in Iraq in 680 CE (61 AH). His death eventually led to the schism between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. Shi'a Muslims hold marches and re-enact Hussein's death; followers consider him to have been the rightful heir to the Caliphate during his lifetime.

Advice

Follow all official instructions. Abide by national health and safety measures. Strictly avoid Shi'a religious sites, congregation venues, procession routes, and the surrounding areas due to the high likelihood of attacks. Consider avoiding Shi'a-majority neighborhoods through the holiday. Strictly avoid blast sites and their surrounding areas due to the potential for secondary bombings. Avoid any demonstrations that occur following an attack; immediately depart the area and seek shelter in a secure location if an unruly gathering forms nearby.