Taiwan: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi likely to visit Taipei Aug. 2-3

Event

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will likely visit Taipei Aug. 2-3 as part of her tour to the Asia-Pacific region. While Taiwan's Foreign Ministry did not comment on Pelosi's travel plans, local media reported that Pelosi will likely arrive Songshan Airport (TSA) at around 22:00 Aug. 2. Pelosi's delegation could stay at Grand Hyatt Hotel in Xinyi District or Marriott Hotel in Zhongshan District. The US House Speaker will likely visit Legislative Yuan to meet with senior government officials like Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen the morning of Aug. 3, and leave Taiwan around noon the same day.

Increased security is highly likely at sites on Pelosi's itinerary, including Grand Hyatt Hotel and Marriott Hotel. Tight security is almost certain near TSA as Pelosi arrives and departs Taipei. Police could set up roadblocks near venues like Legislative Yuan and along Pelosi's travel routes. Localized transport disruptions are likely.

Context

Speaker Pelosi will be the highest-ranking politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years. The trip has heightened tensions between China and the US in recent weeks. Beijing has warned of serious consequences if the trip takes place, raising concerns of direct military confrontation.

While direct military conflict in the Taiwan Strait remains unlikely, Beijing could use its military to signal its opposition to Pelosi’s visit. China held live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, off the coast of Fujian Province, July 30, with more military exercises planned Aug. 2-5. More provocative actions, such as flying military aircraft across the median line in the strait or, potentially, firing missiles into nearby waters cannot be ruled out. However, such actions are unlikely to significantly impact operations in Taiwan or mainland China. Longer-term measures, such as targeted sanctions, could also occur.

Advice

Plan for localized traffic disruptions in Taipei Aug. 2-3. Heed all instructions of local authorities.