China: Tropical Storm Muifa tracking northward across the Yellow Sea as of late Sept. 15 /update 10

Event

Tropical Storm Muifa is tracking northward across the far western Yellow Sea as of late Sept. 15, following landfall near Zhoushan in Zheijang Province at around 20:30 CST the previous day. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 457 km (284 miles) north-northwest of Shanghai, China.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will track north-northeastward and make further landfall over eastern Shandong Province in the coming hours. The system will continue to weaken as it tracks north-northeastward across eastern Shandong Province and then turns to track northeastward as it exits into the Bohai Strait Sept. 16, before making another landfall over southern Liaoning Province the afternoon of Sept. 16. Muifa will weaken to a tropical depression as it continues to track northeastward over southeastern Liaoning late Sept. 16 and will probably dissipate over central Jilin Province early Sept. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 15, the China Meteorological Administration had issued a blue typhoon warning (the lowest level on a four-tier scale), cautioning that strong winds are forecast in the Bohai Sea, western Yellow Sea, and over parts of eastern Shandong and southern Liaoning provinces through at least late Sept. 16. A yellow rainstorm warning is in place. Heavy rainfall is likely in northern parts of the Shandong Peninsula, central and eastern Liaoning, and southeastern Jilin provinces. The heaviest downpours are likely over southern and eastern Liaoning, with rainfall totals of 10-22 cm (4-9 inches) possible in the area.

Additionally, flood warnings are in place for parts of the southeastern Liaoning and eastern Zhejiang provinces. Landslide warnings are in effect over parts of eastern and southern Liaoning, southern Jilin, northeastern Zhejiang, and eastern Shandong provinces, with the highest risk over parts of eastern and southern Liaoning Province. Officials will likely issue relevant weather alerts and warnings over the coming days as the system progresses.

Around 1.2 million people in parts of northeastern Zhejiang Province and over 400,000 people in Shanghai were evacuated during the passing of the storm Sept. 14-15. Authorities suspended operations at Shanghai's Pudong (PVG) and Hongqiao (SHA) international airports and Zhoushan Airport (HSN) and Ningbo Lishe International Airport (NSB) in Zhejiang Province, as well as closed commercial shipping ports across the affected region. Passenger ferries, trains, and other transport services were also suspended. Airports, ports, and other transport hubs have gradually begun to resume operations in Zhejiang Province and Shanghai through Sept. 15. Officials have ordered all fishing vessels in the Yellow and Bohai seas to anchor in ports as the storm moves northward.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports may occur. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration