Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Fiona tracking westward as of early Sept. 17 /update 3

Event

Tropical Storm Fiona is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea early Sept. 17 after making landfall over Guadeloupe late Sept. 16. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 205 km (125 miles) west of Guadeloupe.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen as it tracks west-northwestward, passing south of the Virgin Islands the afternoon of Sept. 17 and south of Puerto Rico early Sept. 18. Fiona is subsequently likely to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it turns northwestward, making landfall over the Dominican Republic late Sept. 18. After transiting over the eastern Dominican Republic through the afternoon of Sept. 19, the storm is then forecast to exit into the southern North Atlantic Ocean and make a close approach to the Turks and Caicos Islands early Sept. 20. After passing east of the Turks and Caicos Islands, Fiona is likely to strengthen further as it turns to track north through early Sept. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 17, authorities had issued tropical storm warnings and watches for the following locations:

Hurricane Watch

• Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

Tropical Storm Warning

• St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

• Saba and St. Eustatius

• St. Maarten

• Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

• US Virgin Islands

• The British Virgin Islands

• the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo

• the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata

Tropical Storm Watch

• South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward to Barahona

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict additional rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over the Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) across the British and US Virgin Islands, 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) across Puerto Rico, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across the Dominican Republic, 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) in Haiti, and 10-25 cm (4-10 inches) over the Turks and Caicos Islands. The heavy rainfall could produce considerable flood impacts in the affected areas, including flash and urban flooding as well as landslides over higher terrain. Storm surge and consequent localized coastal flooding are possible along the coasts of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands over the coming days.

Due to hazardous conditions, authorities have closed ports in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to inbound commercial vessel traffic.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center