South China Sea: Typhoon Noru tracking westward over the South China Sea as of early Sept. 27 /update 6

Event

Typhoon Noru is tracking westward over the South China Sea as of early Sept. 27. As of 10:00 ICT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 430 km (267 miles) east of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Forecast models indicate that the storm system will weaken slightly and make landfall over Quang Nam Province, Vietnam, early Sept. 28. After landfall, Noru is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks westward across central Vietnam, southern Laos, and eastern Thailand, dissipating over far southern Kalasin Province in Thailand early Sept. 29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of early Sept. 27, the China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow (second lowest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall is forecast over the east and west coasts of Guangxi, most of Hainan Island, and the Paracel Islands. The heaviest rainfall of 10-18 cm (4-7 inches) is forecast over the eastern part of Hainan Island and the Paracel Islands.

The Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has warned of very heavy rain across Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Kon Tum provinces and heavy rain over Quang Binh, Binh Dinh, and Gia Lai provinces Sept. 27-28. The heavy rainfall is likely to expand to the North Central Coast and Red River Delta regions from Sept. 28. Strong winds are likely across central Vietnam from the evening of Sept. 27. The NCHMF has issued a level 4 warning of natural disaster risk for Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Binh Dinh provinces and a level 3 warning of natural disaster risk for Quang Tri, Phu Yen, Kon Tum, and Gia Lai provinces.

The Cambodia Department of Meteorology has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) heavy rainfall and strong wind warnings over the northern, northeastern, and southwestern parts of the country Sept. 28-30.

The Thai Meteorological Department has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall over most of the country Sept. 28- Oct. 1. Floods and flash floods are possible. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories in the coming days as the storm approaches.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Cambodia Department of Meteorology
China Meteorological Administration
Thai Meteorological Department
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting